Wisconsin (6-6) and Oklahoma State (7-5) will meet at Chase Field in Phoenix to decide the Guaranteed Rate Bowl betting. Both teams will be without their starting signal-callers in the fourth and final game on the NCAAF schedule Tuesday.
Wisconsin’s Graham Mertz is off to Florida, and Oklahoma State QB1 Spencer Sanders has left the Cowboy program and will likely transfer somewhere in the SEC, either Ole Miss or Auburn.
Another storyline in the game is Wisconsin interim coach Jim Leonhard, a former Badger and NFL stalwart who many figured would become the team’s permanent head coach. Wisconsin brass opted to go in another direction, opting for Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell.
Leonhard chose not to remain with the program and will depart following Tuesday’s game. Both programs have had success in bowls, while the motivation edge certainly lies with the Badgers as they look to send Leonhard out on a winning note.
In this piece, we will provide you with all you need to know to make winning NCAAF picks with your Guaranteed Rate Bowl Betting guide.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Matchup Info
- Date: Tuesday, December 27, 2022
- Time: 10:15 p.m.
- Venue: Chase Field
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
- How to Watch: ESPN
Wisconsin Performance Recap and Analysis
Expected to be a major player in the Big 10 West at the outset of the year. A home loss to Washington State and a blowout in Columbus to Ohio State left Wisky 2-2 after September.
The team was never able to string wins together the rest of the way, never producing more than a one-game winning streak. Offensively, the Badgers were more successful running it than they were through the air, and on defense, the usually stout Wisconsin unit ranked 30th in yards against yet were susceptible through the air.
Key Injuries
Not necessarily a ton to see as far as college football injuries but nonetheless, changes aplenty for the Badgers (and Cowboys) in this one. Starting QB Graham Mertz is gone, transferring to Florida. Other Badger starters not playing are C Joe Tippman, DL Keanu Benton, CB Jay Shaw, and LB Nick Herbig.
Betting Trends to Know
- Badgers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine neutral-site NCAAF games when favored.
- The Badgers are 6-1 SU in their last six bowl appearances.
- Over is 7-5 in Badger games this season.
Oklahoma State Performance Recap and Analysis
A trendy CFP pick at the start of the year, the Cowboys raced to a 5-0 record and number 8 national ranking before a showdown with CFP participant TCU in Fort Worth. A 43-40 overtime setback set the wheels in motion for a second-half collapse as Mike Gundy’s team dropped four of its last five, including a 48-0 drubbing in Manhattan against Kansas State and a season-ending upset loss to West Virginia in Stillwater.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys were 33rd nationally in passing yards per game, but that stat is rendered somewhat meaningless given Sanders’ departure. A team that traditionally likes to outscore its opponents, the Okie State defense was again nothing special, ranking below 200 among all FBS and FCS sides in nearly every key defensive metric.
Key Injuries
Just as is the case with the Badgers, Oklahoma State is out some key players in the game, which undoubtedly will play a huge factor in Guaranteed Rate Bowl Betting. QB Spencer Sanders is in the portal and is reportedly deciding between Ole Miss and Auburn. LB Mason Cobb, RB Dominic Richardson, DE Trace Ford, and S Thomas Harper are all out as well.
Betting Trends to Know
- Cowboys and Gundy are one of America’s best in bowls, going 6-0 against the number in their last 6.
- The Under is 4-0 in the last four Cowboys games in which they’re underdogs by 3.5 or less.
- The Under is 8-0 in the last eight Oklahoma State bowl games when the orange and black are underdogs.
Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State Odds
A look at the current NCAAF odds has Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite. The total is 43.5 points. Bettors taking the Badgers will get -165 on the moneyline, while those siding with the Cowboys will get +135.
Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State Betting Picks
Moneyline
When making NCAAF picks, sometimes it’s critical to dig beneath the NCAAF standings, statistics, and even trends and try and predict motivation. While they did secure the services of proven winner Luke Fickell, a move that no doubt delighted the Wisconsin fanbase, you have to believe there’s a faction of players still upset that interim coach and Badger legend Jim Leonhard didn’t get the job. Add in that Leonhard decided not to stay in Madison. We think Wisconsin, despite a bunch of defections, will rally and continue its strong bowl record. We like the Badgers.
Over-Under
Since the quarterback defections, especially the announcement by Spencer Sanders, the total has plummeted. Bettors used to the Big 10 are accustomed to seeing totals that begin with a four, while those familiar with the Big 12 usually have to decide whether to go over or under a total starting with a six or even seven. Weather won’t be a factor in this one, and we like going against the money (and line moves) in spots like this and taking the over.
Spread
While Jim Leonard isn’t exactly George Gipp, and the Badgers won’t be winning one for the Gipper, there should be a ton of energy and want-to on the part of the Badgers to send out one of their own on a winning note. Gundy and the Cowboys are no slouches themselves when it comes to bowls. We just feel like Wisconsin will want this one more and will prevail. We’re taking the Badgers and the points.
Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State Score Prediction
In carefully looking over our Guaranteed Rate Bowl Betting, we side with the Badgers in this one by a score of 24-21.
NCAAF Pick: Wisconsin 24, Oklahoma State 21.
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