AFC West Betting Preview and Picks

Pick Analysis

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the class of the AFC West for nearly a decade, stringing together eight straight division titles. Four of those years resulted in Super Bowl appearances, including a trio of championships.

Kansas City outlasted San Francisco 25-22 in overtime to win Super Bowl LVIII last February. No team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls, but thanks to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have the tools necessary to continue their reign. They begin the preseason as prohibitive -250 favorites to claim another AFC West crown. 

The Chargers – who hired Jim Harbaugh away from his alma mater Michigan – own the second-best odds at +325. They won just five games last season, but the combination of Harbaugh and Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert has oddsmakers optimistic. 

What can bettors expect? We break down the 2024 AFC West odds.

2024 AFC West Season Information

NFL . Weeks 1-18, Sept. 5, 2024-Jan. 5, 2025 | USA

Pick Chiefs -250

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Odds to win AFC West

AFC West Betting Analysis

As goes Mahomes, so go the Chiefs. So long as the two-time NFL MVP is healthy, Kansas City is a threat to win and win big. Mahomes shook off concerns about his supporting cast to throw for over 4,100 yards and 27 touchdowns. 

The Chiefs finished atop the AFC West at 11-6 and caped things with a Super Bowl repeat. Nobody else in the division finished with more than eight wins. 

After reloading this offseason, drafting Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy to pair with newly acquired Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, the Chiefs find themselves favorites to win not only the division for a ninth straight year, but also another Super Bowl (+600). 

Oddsmakers see Los Angeles as the Chiefs’ biggest threat on the 2024 AFC West odds board, but turning things around won’t be easy, even for an accomplished coach like Harbaugh.  

The Raiders and Broncos, meanwhile, face even steeper climbs as they’re projected for 6.5 and 5.5 wins, respectively. Be sure to keep that in mind when making NFL expert picks.

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AFC West Previous Winners and Betting Trends

The last 14 AFC West titles have been won by just two franchises, Kansas City and Denver. The Broncos’ last division title was in 2015 with Peyton Manning, a season that culminated in a Super Bowl title. 

The Chiefs have averaged 12.1 wins over the last eight seasons per NFL team stats, separating themselves as the league’s best. No team has ever won three straight Super Bowls, but they have a realistic shot. 

AFC West Betting Picks

Is there any doubt? Sure, Los Angeles may be improved. Las Vegas seems to be on the upswing after replacing Josh McDaniels with Antonio Pierce, and Denver no longer has Russell Wilson to hold it back. 

But until anyone shows they can knock off the Chiefs, there’s no reason to fade Mahomes and Co. He’s the best quarterback in the NFL, and nobody comes close. That’ll translate to a lot more wins. 

We’re taking Kansas City at -250 for our 2024 AFC West odds pick.