It’s been a down year for the Auburn Tigers (5-6) that has included a five-game losing streak and a coaching change, but all can be forgotten with a win in the Iron Bowl.
Auburn has won two in a row as they head into Saturday afternoon’s meeting with the Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2), who are ranked #8 and want to improve their New Year’s Six bowl game positioning.
The Auburn vs Alabama betting prediction sees a pretty lofty number with the Crimson Tide over a three-TD favorite on the NCAAF odds.
Nick Saban’s squad has a chance to finish out their 2022 season with a 7-0 home record.
Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Matchup Info
Alabama will not be able to be a 3X defending SEC champion as LSU has clinched that spot in the NCAAF standings to take on Georgia on December 3rd.
It also appears Bryce Young is going to fail in his bid for a second consecutive Heisman Trophy even though the Crimson Tide QB has 2,664 yards with 24 TDs and just four interceptions, although those numbers are down from the highly productive Alabama Crimson Tide stat of 4,322/44/4 a season ago.
Iron Bowls
It looks like a seventh win in the last nine rivalry Iron Bowls will have to suffice for the Crimson Tide, although this matchup doesn’t look like the breeze it was a couple of weeks ago.
Auburn is 2-1 since Cadillac Williams took over as interim coach for Bryan Harsin – and a win over Alabama will force school officials to take a hard look at Williams for the permanent gig.
NCAAF Schedule
Auburn has kept things pretty close in the Iron Bowl the last two times they’ve hosted the game in the NCAAF schedule, losing 24-22 last season and winning 48-45 in 2019.
The previous two trips to Tuscaloosa, though ended in a 42-13 Crimson Tide win in 2020 and 52-21 Alabama victory in 2018. That’s a big reason Alabama is over a three-TD favorite in the 2022 meeting.
Auburn Tigers Performance Recap and Analysis
Auburn is a 39-33 OT loss at Mississippi State from being 3-0 under interim coach Williams.
After the defeat to the Bulldogs, the Tigers have bounced back with a 13-10 win over Texas A&M and a 41-17 victory against Western Kentucky. Both those games were at home, though, and had Auburn favored.
Now Auburn heads on the road looking to hopefully extend their season by picking up a sixth win and getting bowl eligible.
Auburn’s Defense
Aside from the Mississippi State loss, the Auburn defense looks to be back with Williams at the helm as they’ve allowed just 13.5 ppg the last two after allowing 39+ in the four games prior.
The visitors have had a couple of nice offensive performances recently heading into Saturday’s Auburn Tigers football game as well, running for 256 yards against Mississippi State and 252 against Western Kentucky.
Alabama does have a top-15 rush defense though, giving up just 107.8 ypg on the ground.
Key Injuries
Auburn comes into this game relatively healthy, aside from the 4-5 players who have been shut down with season-ending college football injuries.
Betting Trends to Know
The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall, with the scoring going over the total in five of their last six.
Alabama Crimson Tide Performance Recap and Analysis
Alabama is Alabama, and they know they’re going to get their opponent’s best effort week in and week out.
It’s two ncaaf games – and four points – that have changed the entire trajectory of the Crimson Tide season, a 52-49 loss at Tennessee and falling 32-31 at LSU.
For a team used to playing at least for the SEC Championship, if not the National Championship, getting a better New Year’s Six bowl with a win on Saturday may not be as motivating for Crimson Tide players.
Then again, the Iron Bowl rivalry game is one to always get up for, especially in the home finale of 2022.
Key Injuries
RB Jahmyr Gibbs is the biggest name on the Alabama injury report as he sat out last week’s 34-0 win over Austin Peay after injuring his ankle against Mississippi.
Maybe that was just a precaution since Alabama was a -45.5 favorite against the Governors, and Jase MccLellan stepped in to have 156 yards on just 17 carries.
Betting Trends to Know
The Alabama Crimson Tide are 9-0 ATS their last nine against FBS teams with a losing record and are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The home team has covered the number in the last five Iron Bowl matchups.
Auburn vs. Alabama Odds
Alabama is a -22.5 favorite on Saturday afternoon, which seems high considering how well Auburn has played since their coaching change.
That being said, the Tigers haven’t had much success in recent years in the road Iron Bowl Auburn vs Alabama betting prediction.
Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Picks
Moneyline
It’s hard to see Alabama losing this game outright as they are undefeated at home on the season, and Young is likely concluding his Alabama tenure (and could possibly even sit out the bowl game) to head to the NFL.
The former Heisman winner gets one last chance to taste victory in Tuscaloosa.
NCAAF Pick: Alabama (-2000)
Over/Under
The Auburn vs Alabama betting prediction is a tough one to call as this could just as easily be a defensive struggle or a 38-35 shootout because you never know how the Iron Bowl is going to play out.
That number is low, and if Alabama fires on all cylinders in a blowout, they could approach mid-40s themselves.
NCAAF Pick: Over 49.5 (-110)
Spread
Williams seems like a leader of men as coach and he’ll have the Tigers fired up for this one. That doesn’t mean they’ll win, but they will keep it competitive.
- NCAAF Pick: Auburn +21.5 (-110)
- Score Prediction: Alabama 31 – Auburn 24
- NCAAF Pick: Auburn +21.5 (-110)
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