Coming off a 20-17 defeat at the hands of the resurgent New York Jets, the Buffalo Bills (6-2) play host to one of the league’s most surprising and dominant teams, the Minnesota Vikings (7-1), winners of 6 in a row.
Pretty much nothing went right for the Bills in the Jet loss, as the customarily potent offense managed just two touchdowns and 317 total yards. The usually prolific Josh Allen threw for just 205 yards and a pair of picks.
When looking at the Vikings vs Bills spread, bettors must decide if the Blue and Red will rebound at home off a tough loss and beat a 7-1 team. But over a touchdown is certainly a big ask.
Minnesota Vikings Season Forecast
With a veteran quarterback (Kirk Cousins) and potent offensive skill players, the Vikings were expected to contend for a playoff spot. One look at the NFL standings shows that they have lived up to expectations and then some, as they currently hold a commanding four-game lead in the NFC North.
Taking a glance at the NFL team stats shows the Vikes in the league’s top 10 in both points per game (24.1) and passing yards (238.1). The defense has been somewhat stingy as well, allowing 20.1 points per game (12th) and surrendering just 111.3 rushing yards a contest, good for 10th best in the NFL.
Moneyline
Opening Line
The Vikings are currently + 290 on the moneyline.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Since it is still early in the week, there has been no line movement.
What Make Lose the Bet
Hard to see this line moving down, and I could see it moving up. However, given the volatility of the NFL Injury Report, there’s a possibility it could fluctuate during the week as game time approaches.
Spread Line
Opening Line
The Vikings vs Bills spread currently sits at – 7.5 in favor of the home team, the Bills.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Since it is early in the week, there has not been any line movement as of yet.
What Make Lose the Bet
In considering how to make Vikings picks, one must consider that despite their sparkling 7-1 record, they are just 3-4-1 ATS.
Total
Opening Line
The total in this contest has been set at 48.5.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Since it is early in the week, the total has not fluctuated at all.
What Make Lose the Bet
While the Vikings have been able to win and show offensive promise, the Bills’ defense ranks atop the league in many team and NFL player stats.
Minnesota Vikings Betting Trend to Know
Interestingly enough, the Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and are 8-1-1 in their last ten contests on turf. As is true in many NFL matchups, trends are a solid indicator of future success.
Buffalo Bills Season Forecast
Picked by many to win the AFC, the Bills have shown flashes of brilliance this season, losing just two games. In one of the most anticipated NFL matchups of the season, Buffalo went to Kansas City and beat the Chiefs, avenging a 38-24 defeat to KC in the 2021 AFC title game.
Buffalo has dropped a pair of divisional games, losing to the Dolphins in Week 3 21-19 in Miami and to the Jets 20-17 last week. Very hard to find weaknesses in the Bills statistically, as they are second in the league in total offense (425.6) while allowing the third-fewest yards (319.3) on defense.
The passing attack has been particularly potent, with Josh Allen and his bevy of receivers combining to average 292.1 yards per contest, good for third in the league. Those who are involved in Bills betting week in and week out have come to expect frequent offensive explosions and stifling defense.
Buffalo has four opponents in the first nine games of the NFL schedule to 10 points or less, a league-best.
Moneyline
Opening Line
The game has opened with the Bills as -375 favorites on the ML.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Since it’s early in the week, there has been no line movement as of yet.
What Make Lose the Bet
If the Bills let the Jets beat them twice, meaning the disappointment of the loss to Gang Green lingers, they could be in for a tough spot.
Spread Line
Opening Line
The Bills are 7.5-point favorites in the matchup.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Since it’s early in the week, the line has yet to move.
What Make Lose the Bet
In looking at the Vikings vs Bills spread, if Josh Allen regresses to his performance against the Jets when he completed a season-low 18 passes and two interceptions, the Bills could find themselves losers of two in a row.
Total
Opening Line
The game total is set at 48.5.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The line has yet to fluctuate since it just opened.
What Make Lose the Bet
The Buffalo Bills have gone under the point total in 7 of eight games, going 1-7 in the process. Despite their great offense, the defense is smothering, which has caused a lot of unders.
Buffalo Bills Betting Trend to Know
The Bills are 6-1-2 ATS in games following a SU loss. The under is 4-0 last 4 when Buffalo faces a team with a winning record.
Most Profitable Players of this Matchup to Bet On
Kirk Cousins
Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown two touchdown passes five times this year, yet has just done it once on the road. Given the Bills stifling defense and Cousins’ recent one-touchdown, three-pick performance at Philly, look to fade Cousins when it comes to touchdown passes.
Justin Jefferson
Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson is without question one of the league’s most electrifying players. Jefferson has thrived against double coverage and, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF) metrics, is almost equally as effective when facing man coverage or zone defenses.
While we expect Cousins to struggle somewhat against a strong Bills pass rush in a hostile environment, we feel as though Jefferson will get his touches. Look to play his receptions anywhere between 7-9 in the contest. Anything over 9.5, fade.
Stefon Diggs
Bills wideout Stefon Diggs has hauled in 29 balls in the last four games and eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark three times in that span, averaging 112.8 yards a contest.
Against a Vikes defensive unit that statistically struggles against the pass (27th in the league at 256.9), expect a lot of production for Diggs. Anything in the neighborhood of 100-110 yards receiving, take the over.
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