The Cleveland Browns (0-0) head to Carolina to take on their former teammate and the Carolina Panthers (0-0) in a must-see matchup.
Continue reading for a detailed analysis and Panthers vs Browns prediction
Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns
Panthers vs. Browns Matchup Info
The Browns finished last season with an 8-9 record, going 7-10 against the spread. Carolina was 5-12 in 2021 with a league-worst 5-12 against the spread record.
Cleveland Browns
After an eventful offseason full of drama and media frenzy, the Browns will head into this season with some clarity.
Deshaun Watson may be suspended the first eleven games, but Cleveland is playoff ready and good enough to win even with Jacoby Brissett behind centers.
Browns Offense
Cleveland’s offense begins and ends with the run game. Last season, the Browns led the NFL in yards per carry with 5.1, 4.85 adjusted line yards per carry, and 1.60 second-level yards per carry.
Nick Chubb is an excellent blend of power and finesse. He finished last season with 57 missed tackles, 4.24 yards after contact per carry, and 1,258 rushing yards. Cleveland’s run game can really keep them competitive despite their weakness at quarterback.
But Brissett, who had a 74.0 PFF passing grade, completing 62.7%, will need to cut back on the turnover-worthy plays that he committed on 3.6% of his 259 dropbacks last season.
The Browns finished eleventh last season in DVOA and seventh in pass DVOA with a 90.6 PFF coverage grade which was first in that category.
Miles Garrett upfront and Denzel Ward in the secondary are absolute studs. Garrett was the highest-rated pass rusher by PFF last season, also allowing Jadeveon Clowney to have a career-high in sacks. Ward has not allowed more than 490 yards in a season since he entered the league.
Browns’ Weakness
One weakness in the Browns’ defense is their run-stopping ability. Last season, Cleveland finished 23rd in rush DVOA, allowing opponents to convert on 72% of their power situations and average 0.72 open-field yards per carrying.
The Browns only stuffed 13% of opponents’ runs behind the line of scrimmage and didn’t have a single linebacker graded higher than 58.5 by PFF.
Key Injuries
The Browns could potentially be down three offensive linemen on an already below-average offensive line:
- T Jack Conklin (78.8 PFF grade): Questionable
- C Nick Harris: IR
- T Chris Hubbard: Questionable
Betting Trends to Know
A key betting trend to know for are Panthers vs. Browns prediction is Kevin Stefanski is 14-20-1 against the spread as head coach of the Browns and 10-13-2 as a road underdog of seven points or less.
Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers are 10-23 under Matt Rhule, who is in the middle of a seven-year $62 million deal. Carolina is 22-43 since David Tepper purchased the team in 2018.
Things looked promising last season, starting off 3-0 and then finishing 2-12 in their final 14 games, going 5-12 in 2021.
Christian McCaffery is one of the best running backs in the NFL when he’s healthy. McCaffery has only played in 10 of 33 games over the past two seasons.
Panthers’ Offense
The Panther’s offense behind 13 different offensive line combinations ranked 30th in yards and 29th in ppg last season.
Baker Mayfield should easily be an upgrade for the Panthers, who ranked last in QB rating and adjusted net yards per attempt.
The offensive line should be better for Carolina this year, with Taylor Moton and Brady Christensen both returning.
The Panthers also added Bradley Bozeman and Austin Corbett in free agency and drafted Ikem Ekwonu in the first round. Ekwonu is great against the run but needs to improve quickness picking up the left side.
D.J. Moore has gone over 1,100 yards in each of the past three seasons while Robbie Anderson’s yards and receptions were cut in half but Anderson is still a deep threat.
Carolina will also need more production from tight ends Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble.
Panther’s Defense
On the defensive side of the ball, four of the five first round draft picks over the last eight seasons are still starting for the Panthers:
- LB Shaq Thompson (2015)
- DE Brian Burns (2019)
- DT Derrick Brown (2020)
- CB Jaycee Horn (2021)
Carolina also traded for 2020 first-round corner C.J. Henderson. There’s elite-level talent on the Panthers’ defense who were second in yards allowed last season.
Burns has 25.5 sacks over the last three seasons but may see a drop due to double teams with edge rusher Haasan Reddick leaving.
Gross-Matos has shown flashes and could have a breakout season this year.
Leader of the Defense
Thompson, who is the leader on defense is averaging nearly 110 tackles a season over the last three years, and Chinn, who is a free safety that can also play linebacker has 224 tackles in his first two seasons.
This Carolina team has one of the strongest cornerback groups in the NFL and could play a big role in the Panthers’ future bets.
Key Injuries
C Bradley Bozeman and WR Robbie Anderson are both questionable heading into Sunday.
Betting Trends to Know
- 14-10-1 in last 25 games vs AFC
- 6-3-1 in last ten home games vs AFC
- 5-2 in their last seven games in September
Browns vs. Panthers Odds Breakdown
The Cleveland Browns are +2.5 and +120 on the money line. The Carolina Panthers are -2.5 and – 140 on the money line.
Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers Betting Picks
Give me the Carolina Panthers on the money line and against the spread for this game. Carolina is currently the better team and Baker Mayfield is a big factor in our Panthers vs Browns betting prediction.
Mayfield takes things personally and backs them up as much as anybody. Just ask Hue Jackson.
There isn’t really an edge for the Browns anywhere in this matchup except for maybe the run game, but the gap between the Browns’ running game and the Panthers’ run game is far less than the gap between the Panthers’ passing attack and the Browns pass game.
I’ll take over 40.5 on this one. The Browns will definitely look to the run game which typically eats up a lot of clocks, favoring the under but their run game is explosive and they can score fast with their rushing attack. I’d almost consider the under for all the receivers for the Browns prop bets.
Cleveland Browns vs. Carolina Score Prediction
Score Prediction: Cleveland Browns 20 Carolina Panthers 23
NFL Pick: Over 40.5 (-110)
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