wo young quarterbacks with the spotlight shining squarely on them for different reasons collide in Week 12 of the NFL schedule as the Chicago Bears (3-8, 1-5 Away) visit the New York Jets (6-4, 2-3 Home) this Sunday.
Kickoff from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, is scheduled for 1:00 pm EST and will be broadcast on FOX. This is one of the more interesting NFL matchups this week to watch.
It’s the first regular-season meeting between the two teams since 2018, when the Mitch Trubisky-led Bears toppled the Jets in Chicago, 24-10.
Trubisky is now in Pittsburgh after a brief stint in Buffalo, and Sam Darnold (then the QB of the Jets) is in Carolina, potentially set to make his first start of the year for the Panthers this week. Let’s explore the Bears vs Jets spread and total below.
Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets
Chicago Bears Season Forecast
The Bears have become one of the season’s darlings, largely due to the play of third-year quarterback Justin Fields.
However, when looking at Chicago Bears standings, they still find themselves at the bottom of both their division and the NFC as a whole.
Their three wins are tied for the second-fewest in the entirety of the NFL, as only the Texans have fewer with one.
Moneyline
Opening Line
Back in May, the Bears vs Jets spread saw Chicago at +120 on the moneyline. When the line opened on Monday of this week, they were +170.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The Bears’ moneyline has climbed as high as +210 this week, sliding back down to +175 at the time this article was published.
This is due to the fact that Fields is questionable for the game after suffering shoulder and hamstring injuries last Sunday.
What Makes Lose the Bet
The Bears have to win the game outright in order to win a moneyline bet placed on them. Losing the game loses the wager.
Spread Line
Opening Line
This line opened on Monday with the Bears getting 5 points as a road underdog.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The look-ahead line back in the summer had Chicago as a slight dog, getting two points. But this week, the line has moved to as much as +6.
The sharps have brought it back down again, as it now sits at +4.5 at the time of this writing. Fields’ status will be the ultimate determining factor of any additional movement.
What Makes Lose the Bet
If Fields is ruled out, the Bears will be sizable underdogs (unless the sharps keep betting it back down). Chicago’s backup is Trevor Siemian, who does have plenty of NFL experience but isn’t nearly as dynamic as Fields.
Total
Opening Line
If you leaned to the Under in this one, you could have gotten as high as 48 as of last Tuesday. When the total opened on Monday, the o/u was 44 points.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The total has gone all the way under 40 to 39.5 at printing time, almost nine full points in the matter of a week.
Of course, Fields remains a major reason why but the Jets’ offensive performance last week has contributed as well.
What Make Lose the Bet
Not a ton of action on the over in the sportsbooks through much of the week, but betting on the over will be risky if it ends up being Siemian vs. Zach Wilson.
Chicago Bears Betting Trend to Know
The Bears are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss (they lost to Atlanta last week by three as a 2-point dog).
New York Jets Season Forecast
The New York Jets come into Week 12 in last place in the AFC East after being high in the NFL team standings to start the year.
That might not sound like a surprise. However, at 6-4, they’re right in the thick of the AFC playoff race, just behind the Patriots and Bengals.
New England and Cincinnati have identical records but hold the tiebreaker over New York thanks to head-to-head victories, two of them in the case of the Pats.
The Jets stats last week were ugly and borderline unwatchable.
Moneyline
Opening Line
Back in May, the Bears vs Jets spread had New York at -140 on the moneyline. When the line opened on Monday of this week, they were -200.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The Jets’ moneyline has plummeted as low as -250 this week, climbing back to -205 at the time this article was published. As noted, this is all about whether Justin Fields will suit up and play.
What Make Lose the Bet
The Jets have to win the game outright in order to win a moneyline bet placed on them. Losing the game loses the wager.
Spread Line
Opening Line
This line opened on Monday with the Jets giving 5 points as the home favorite. Continue monitoring NFL point spreads as the week unfolds.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The lookahead line back in the summer had New York as slight chalk, giving two points. But this week, the line has moved to as much as -6.
The sharps have brought it back down again, as it now sits at -4.5 at the time of this writing. The opposing QB’s status will be the ultimate determining factor of any additional movement.
What Makes Lose the Bet
If Fields is ruled out, the Jets will be prohibitive favorites (unless the sharps keep betting it back down). However, it’s still not even clear who the Jets will start under center either.
Wilson struggled mightily in last Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, and head coach Robert Saleh did not rule out the possibility of benching his second-year signal-caller.
Total
Opening Line
If you leaned to the Under in this one, you could have gotten as high as 48 as of last Tuesday. When the total opened on Monday, the o/u was 44 points.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The total has gone all the way under 40 to 39.5 at printing time, almost nine full points in the matter of a week. The uncertainty about who will start at QB for both sides is the biggest catalyst for the shift.
What Makes Lose the Bet
Siemian vs. Wilson? Siemian vs. Mike White? Siemian vs. Joe Flacco? A lean to the under would suggest the backups will play, but if you have a feeling that Fields is able to go might pose some value to the over.
New York Jets Betting Trend to Know
The Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss (lost to New England 10-3 in Week 11), according to NFL team stats.
Most Profitable Players of this Matchup to Bet On
Justin Fields Anytime TD Scorer
This is, of course, contingent on the Ohio State product suiting up. It’s arguably the biggest question mark on the NFL injury report.
If he does, he’ll become must-see tv. Fields has had fantasy football managers salivating recently as he’s put up an average of 30.7 fantasy points.
And last week, he tied Kyler Murray for the most consecutive games with a passing and rushing touchdown since 1967 with five.
David Montgomery Over Rush Yds Total
Yes, Montgomery has only eclipsed the 100-yard mark once this season. He also missed one game and had single-digit carries in two others.
However, with Fields banged up and backup Khalil Herbert set to miss his second straight game, the Bears will lean on their featured back.
Also, consider the Jets have allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards this season.
Both QB’s to Throw an INT
The value will be higher on this one if both Fields and Wilson play. However, if the backups suit up, this is as good a lock as it gets.
The Jets and Bears have combined to pick off 20 passes from opposing quarterbacks this season, the third most of any matchup this week.
Eddie Jackson leads the way with four INTs when looking at NFL player stats.
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