Sunday’s Week 5 matchup between the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers is important for both squads. After dropping their first game of the season last week against Baltimore, the Broncos need a win to maintain momentum in the ultra-competitive AFC West.
After an impressive season-opening win at Buffalo, the Steelers have dropped three straight games and need a win on Sunday to avoid their worst start since losing six of the first eight games in 2013.
Game Odds
As of Thursday morning, Sportsbooks has this game listed as a pick ’em with -110 odds on either team. Sportsbook also has the Over/Under set up 39.5 with -110 odds on either side of the number. This number has dropped two points since it opened earlier in the week.
More Than a Loss
Denver suffered more than just a loss to its unblemished record last Sunday. The Broncos also lost quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a concussion at the end of the first half. With backup Drew Lock under center, the Broncos were shut out in the second half. Bridgewater, who is still listed as questionable for Sunday, has passed for 892 yards on the season with five touchdowns and no interceptions to go along with the third-highest QBR (65.6) in the league.
Where’s the Run Game?
Critics will quickly point to Ben Roethlisberger for the reason why the Steelers are off to a 1-3 start. But despite ranking 28th in QBR (36.3), the 39-year old has thrown for over 1,000 yards on the season. The bigger concern should be the Steelers running game, or lack thereof. Pittsburgh is last in the NFL with just 55 yards per game on the ground, and aside from rookie Najee Harris’ 185 yards, no other back has more than 22 yards on the season.
Solid 1-2 Punch
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams have led the Broncos rushing attack to 11th in league with 122 yards per game. Gordon leads the team with 248 yards on the season, while Williams leads all rookies with 186 yards — one more yard than Steelers’ running back Najee Harris.
Second Thoughts?
Outspoken receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster had options to go to other teams in the offseason but chose to return to Pittsburgh for perhaps one last ride with Big Ben. Through the season’s first four games, Smith-Schuster has posted pedestrian numbers with just 15 receptions for 189 yards, including just two catches for 11 yards in last week’s loss to Green Bay. Dionte Jonhson leads the team with 23 grabs for 232 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Chase Claypool has 15 catches for 211 yards. As a whole, Pittsburgh ranks 27th offensively with 16.8 points per game.
Defense Paving the Way
Denver’s fast 3-1 start is a combination of steady QB play of Bridgewater (prior to the concussion) and its defense. Led by Von Miller, the Broncos’ defense ranks fourth overall in yards allowed per game (268), sixth in passing yards (198), fifth in rushing yards (70), and second in points (12.3).
Trends
Denver has won six of the last ten meetings and is 6-2-2 against the spread in those ten games.
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall, while Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
Pittsburgh is also 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against AFC West teams.
The Over has hit in 10 of the last 14 meetings, including the last five.
Free Bet: Over 39.5 (-110)
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