The New York Giants and Green Bay Packers are packing their bags as they prepare to play overseas in London for Week 5 of the NFL. With both teams playing in close games on Sunday, we will see how much rest and game planning both teams can do come kick-off at 8:30 AM ET. The Packers vs. Giants spread is large, but should it be?
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are coming off an OT win at home against the New England Patriots. Now, this was anything but a convincing win by any measure and has left some Packers fans with worries, whichapparently don’t disappear with an OT win over a team with their 3rd string QB on the field.
With obvious signs of communication failures and a lack of cohesion by the offense, the defense has stepped up and, in big ways holding opponents to 10/42 on 3rd down conversions and 11 sacks. The Packers are a good football team, and the year is young. They are still easily frontrunners for the NFC North, and if they can get their offense in a groove, they could be Super Bowl Contenders.
Injuries
When looking at the NFL injury report, saying Green Bay is beaten up would be a complete understatement. The team is without Jaire Alexander CB, Rasheed Walker OT, Samori Toure WR, Sean Rhyan OT, Jonathan Ford DT, and Caleb Jones OT. Adrian Amos S also was taken out of the Packers’ Week 4 game with a concussion. I don’t expect him to participate in the game either.
Moneyline -340
The Green Bay Packers Moneyline at the time of writing is -340. It’s been holding steady at this price for the past couple of weeks. I expect it actually to move a little bit. I don’t think that the price reflects the fact that this is the Packers’ first international overseas since 1998. Aaron Rogers has only played in the US and Canada, and I wouldn’t be surprised to hear some sort of small travel snafu that could affect the Packers’ Moneyline Price by 5 points or so. However, this is the one for me when it comes to Packers betting picks. I’m not sure if they cover, but I definitely think they win.
Spread Line -8
The Packers vs. Giants Spread has been sitting at -7.5 for the Packers the past couple of weeks before going up to -8 after their last game. I would stay away from this one. Overseas games are notorious for being a little whacky. The unpredictable is almost bound to happen in these games, and I believe the large window doesn’t reflect that. I’d stay away from the Packers at -8.
Total
The total is currently set at 41.5. I’d take the over as I expect both teams to score 21+ in a scoreline around 24-21. I’d take the over up to 42.
Packers Betting Trend to Know
The Packers haven’t covered the spread as a favorite this season, and I expect that trend to carry over this week.
New York Giants
The New York Giants are having unforeseen success early on this season. The Giants haven’t really played any good opponents and tend to win by just hanging in the game with grit and determination, and the Giants’ stats reflect that.
Last week was maybe their best game. Then again, it came against their worst opponent, and still, the game was a single-possession difference. The Giant’s passing game is nonexistent, meaning their offense lives and dies with their run game, mainly Saquon Barkley, who carried the ball 31 times against the Bears. Stop the run, and you can stop the Giants.
Injuries
The Giants are also very banged up with 13 players on the injury report, including both of the QBs on their roster. Daniel Jones is expected to play through the ankle injury, but if he is unable, I don’t expect Tyrod Taylor to be through the concussion protocol for this game. There was some time when both QBs were out in the game against Chicago, and they just had Saquon in the Wildcat. Which almost felt like the regular offense.
Moneyline +280
The Giants Moneyline has been at a stable price of +280. I think this is a fair line as I don’t know how likely the Giants will pull this one out, though I’ve seen crazier things occur in the International series.
Spread Line +8
This is my favorite bet in this game. I think that the way the Giants have been scrappy all season, it’s begging for this to be a 3-5 point game. The Packers vs. Giants spread is too large, especially when you consider the Giants are the team that just won’t let go. When considering how off things will be due to teams having to travel, I think it’s the perfect storm for the Giants to cover.
Giants Betting Trend to Know
The Giants are 3-0 against the spread as underdogs. Obviously, the bookies see them as a worse team than they are, so jump on the Giants bandwagon before they learn from their mistakes.
Most Profitable Player of this Matchup to Bet On
Saquon Barkley is the Giants’ Offense. Expect him to rack up rushing yards, especially when Jones’s health is questionable, and to score a TD
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