The Colts didn’t quite play well enough to get the lone first-round bye in the AFC playoffs, but they get the next best thing with a matchup against 2-14 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have dropped eight in a row, but Indianapolis hasn’t won at EverBank Field / TIAA Bank Field since 2014 in an Andrew Luck vs. Blake Bortles matchup.
Indianapolis couldn’t clinch their spot in the postseason last week, suffering a 23-20 home loss to Las Vegas as the Raiders kept their playoff hopes alive. The good news for the Colts is that the Jaguars don’t have a ton of incentive to win Sunday’s game as they currently hold the #1 draft pick spot. 2-13-1 Detroit could move into that spot, though, if Jacksonville picked up the victory in the regular-season finale.
Colts at Jaguars Betting Analysis
On the Colts side
Indianapolis would love to put this game away early and save some miles on Jonathan Taylor for what they hope is a long postseason run. Taylor has worked his way into MVP candidacy with a 1,734 yard rush season with 18 TDs. Taylor has gone for 100+ yards in seven of the last eight, and the Jaguars rank 25th in the NFL, allowing 127.1 yards/game.
Carson Wentz was 16/27 for just 148 yards in last week’s loss to the Raiders, and although he’ll need to be better in the postseason, his performance shouldn’t be in question against the Jaguars. Jacksonville just lost 50-10 to the Patriots last week, with rookie QB Mac Jones completing 22/30 for 227 yards and 3 TDs.
On the Jaguars side
The Jaguars will likely give Trevor Lawrence the start at QB, as development and game reps are key at this point in his career. He’s almost had what could be considered a lost rookie season, though, as the Urban Meyer experiment blew up in smoke, and Lawrence will have to learn a new system in the offseason for the second straight year.
Lawrence still has plenty to play for, as he hopes to be battling with the Colts in the AFC South for the next decade, and a win to keep Indianapolis out of the playoffs would be a great rivalry builder. The Jaguars are also shooting for a seventh straight home win over Indianapolis, and even falling out of the #1 pick spot isn’t that big of a deal considering it’s a very defensive-oriented top of the draft this offseason.
Colts at Jaguars Prediction
The Colts losing in a must-win spot against a Jaguars team on an eight-game losing streak would be the type of defeat that could cost jobs. Very few people expect Jacksonville to pull this one off outright, but that’s been the case in nearly every one of their six straight losses in Duval County.
That makes this +15.5 spread just too many points, even with the Jaguars losing by 40 last week in Foxborough.