NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Best Bets and Predictions

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans will meet in Jacksonville on Sunday for what will be the 41st game between the division rivals.

Both teams were projected to do poorly this year, and while the Jags have been surprising the league, the Texans have been delivering on the low expectations placed on them at the beginning of the year.

I’ll break down all of the Jaguars vs. Texans best bets for you as we look forward to NFL week 5. 

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have clawed themselves into a tie for first place in the AFC South with a 2-2 record. Trevor Lawrence is starting to show that he has the goods and that last year was a fluke.

Look at his NFL player stats, and you’ll see he has gone 88 of 134 for 946 yards and 8 TDs to 2 INTS. 

Jaguars’ Defense

The Defense has also been stellar, racking up 7 INTs in the first four games of the season. They, according to NFL team stats, rank 4th in the league for opponents’ points per game and look to keep the trend going against a Texans Offense that ranks 26th in points per game.

Contingent on a lack of injuries, I predict that the Jaguars to continue having a decent season and winning a weak AFC South this season.


The Jags are doing a good job of staying healthy. One of the only notable injuries would be Zay Jones, who Doug Pederson is optimistic about suiting up against the Texans.

Even if Jones is absent from Sunday’s game, I don’t expect it to throw too much of a wrench into the Jag’s gameplan as Lawrence is finding it easy to spread the ball around.

He should find success even without his second most targeted receiver. The other major injury is Folorunso Fatukasi. His status, for the time being, is day to day.

If Fatukasi isn’t feeling game ready, the Jags will turn to Adam Gotsis, the 7-year veteran who is respectable at the position. Don’t expect NFL injuries to affect the Jaguars that much. 

Odds Breakdown

Moneyline (-320)

When it comes to Jaguars vs. Texans best bets, this may be one of them. It’s one of the better Jaguars picks.

The Jags though coming off a loss, are a good team. I was half expecting these odds to be in the -400 to -500 range which is a trap at that price. 

The Moneyline price was growing in Jacksonville’s favor the past couple of weeks before settling last week at -320, which though on the edge of odds worth betting on though a healthy Jaguars squad at home against this abysmal Texans team should easily prevail.

Spread Line (-7.5)

The past two weeks, the spread for this game was sitting at Jacksonville -7, which is a spread I feel way more comfortable about.

However, after a great start against Philly, the line moved half a point. It’s a large spread, and personally, I’d feel more comfortable at -7. This is the first time this year that the Jaguars are favorites going into their game.

Jaguars Betting Trend to Know 

With a large spread to cover, the Jaguars enter, with both of their wins being by a margin of 24+. Watch for another big win this week! As 

Houston Texans

To say that the Houston Texans are struggling would be a complete understatement. After starting the season with a tie to the also floundering Indianapolis Colts, the Texans have lost 3 straight to the sub-par competition.

Lovie Smith and company are desperate to find themselves a win to try and salvage the year. 

AFC South

In this weak state that the AFC South is in, if they find their groove, they could possibly make a run at the division, being only 2 games behind the leaders (Jacksonville being one of them).

But the offense ranks 22nd in pass yards per game and 25th in rush yards per game, so it’s a fair sentiment to start to wonder if the offense even has a groove to fall into.


The Texans are especially banged up in two locations. First, the tight end room seems to have been bitten by the injury bug as both Pharoah Brown and Brevin Jordan are out, leaving O.J Howard as the lone healthy tight end.

This could end up being huge as they will be expecting to get a lot of snaps out of the 6th year veteran. 

The other major area of concern would be the cornerbacks, as both Isaac Yiadom and Derek Stingley Jr. are on the injured list.

We are awaiting more info on Stingley’s injury; however, having both unavailable will continue to thin out a defensive secondary which has been one of the few stronger parts of this team.

Odds Breakdown  

Moneyline (+265)

Divisional games are notorious for the different energy that players have whilst in them. Divisional rivalries are the building block of the NFL. 

The Texans are going to need some of that divisional matchup magic on Sunday if they want any chance of winning this game.

I think the game is winnable for the Texans. For as promising as the young Jaguars look, they still are young and accident-prone.

The Texans will have to utilize every single Jacksonville error. Crazier things have happened, but the Texans’ odds are not good, and for a good reason. 

Spread Line (+7.5)

This is one of my Jaguars vs Texans best bets. I think that though it’s highly unlikely the Texans walk away with a win, I can see this match ending within 7.

The Texans have 4 INTs and 2 defensive fumble recoveries to their credit. They also have 11 sacks and could give Lawrence some issues.

They have held 3 of their opponents under 24 points, and I believe they hold the Jaguars to around that amount. Can Davis Mills lead the Texans to a couple of TDs? I believe so. 

Total (o/u 45)

I’m expecting a defensive game lower scoring game. I think that Lovie Smith is a veteran enough coach to know how to use the flaws in the young jags offense and give Trevor a hard time with difficult coverages and disguised rushes. My final prediction is Jaguars 24 Texans 17.

Texans Betting Trend to Know 

The Texans are 2-1-1 against the spread this year. Only time can tell if they continue their success against the spread. A large spread and divisional hype could be a big help. 

Jaguars vs. Texans Best Bets

NFL Pick: Jaguars (-320)

NFL Pick: Texans +7.5 (-115)

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