The Dolphins hope that Tampa Bay will be in a letdown spot after Tom Brady’s emotional trip back to Foxborough last weekend to beat the Patriots. It may not matter even if the Bucs come out flat in this one, though, because the Dolphins are in a rut with three straight losses – two at home.
Oddsmakers like Tampa Bay as -10 point favorites here, and the Buccaneers have covered the number in five of their last six at Raymond James Stadium. Miami has lost 35-0 at home to Buffalo this season but have also gone 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road underdog.
Dolphins Offense a Hard Watch
Miami wasn’t exactly a high-octane offense even with Tua Tagovailoa under center, ranking 22nd in the NFL in total offense last season (339 ypg). They could at least score, though, putting up 25.3 ppg, but that is definitely not the case this year, with Miami 31st in scoring (15.5) and total yards (252).
Tagovailoa (ribs) remains on the shelf for Sunday’s matchup, meaning Jacoby Brisset makes his third straight start. Brissett has completed over 65% of his passes the last two games and hasn’t thrown an interception, but he also only averages 207 yards through the air in his two starts.
It’s tough to gauge Miami coming into the meeting with the Bucs, especially as double-digit underdogs. The Dolphins were down 20-3 in the 4th quarter last week against Indianapolis before losing 27-17 while posting just 203 yards of total offense.
It’s the Week 3 game against the Raiders that gives Dolphins backers hope, though, as they actually looked like a competent offense in a 31-28 loss in Las Vegas. Miami ran for 133 yards in that game, but one of their scores was also by the defense. The Dolphins defense, meanwhile, gave up 487 yards of total offense.
Tampa Bay Too Banged Up to Cover?
The loss of Rob Gronkowski (ribs) was evident last week as the Bucs had their worst offensive output of the season in the 19-17 win over New England. Tom Brady was just 22 of 43 in that game and didn’t have a TD pass, but some of that is due to no coach knowing Brady better than the Patriots’ Bill Belichick.
Even with Gronkowski remaining out, it’s the health of TB’s defense that really has covering the -10 point spread in question. CB Carlton Davis hurt his quad vs. New England, and S Antoine Winfield suffered a concussion. CB Jamel Dean and pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul also both issued the Patriots game but are expected back vs. Miami.
Of course, the big question is, can Miami’s offense do anything even if Tampa Bay is a bit banged up? The Dolphins rank in the bottom five in total yards, passing, rushing, and points and are injured themselves with Will Fuller (finger) out and Devante Parker (shoulder) questionable.
Dolphins at Buccaneers Pick
This is a sandwich game for Tampa Bay as they are coming off the big win at New England last Sunday night but also have the short turnaround with another primetime game going to Philadelphia on Thursday night.
If the Dolphins had any semblance of offense, they’d be an easy play here – but then again, they probably also wouldn’t be 10 point underdogs. Either way, this is still the NFL, and games that are scheduled like this for Tampa Bay are the ones that are hard to cover.
Pick: Dolphins +10