The Miami Dolphins (8-5) and the Buffalo Bills (10-3) square off for a crucial AFC East matchup in Week 15. Buffalo had this matchup circled on the NFL schedule as they look to avenge their two-point loss back in Week Three. Heading into this one, the Bills grabbed their fourth straight victory with a win over the Jets 20-12. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have struggled, dropping their last two contests, including a 23-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Which AFC East rival will come out on top in Week 15? Let’s take a closer look at these two teams and give you the best Dolphins vs Bills betting picks.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Game Info and Analysis
- Matchup Info (h3)
- Game Day: Saturday, December 17, 2022
- Game Time: 8:15 PM ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Location: Orchard Park, New York
- Stadium: Highmark Stadium
Miami Dolphins Performance Recap and Analysis
The Miami Dolphins lost to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night at SoFi Stadium, 23-17, giving Mike McDaniel’s squad its fifth loss of the year and second in as many weeks. With the loss, the Dolphins remain in second place in the AFC East. However, they will now have to play catchup as they are two games back from Buffalo in the NFL standings.
Miami’s offensive attack could have been much better as Tua Tagovailoa’s NFL player stats struggled, completing just 35.7% of his passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. Despite the loss, Tyreek Hill has secured his spot in the Dolphin record books with a team record for receiving yards in a single season. Including his 81 yards last week, Hill leads the league with 100 receptions and 1,460 receiving yards. Overall, the Miami offensive unit ranks seventh in total offense (367.8 ypg) and averages 24.3 points per game.
The Dolphins’ defense also wasn’t very strong, allowing Justin Herbert to complete 76.5% of his passes for 367 yards and a touchdown while connecting 18 times with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen for a combined 208 yards. Despite the tough matchup, the Dolphins did record four sacks for the third straight game. In terms of NFL team stats, the Dolphins defense is tied for the 10th most points allowed this season with 24.0 points per game, though.
They now have the sixth seed in the conference, one spot ahead of the Chargers.
Key Injuries
According to the NFL injury report, WR Tyreek Hill and RB Jeff Wilson Jr. will be questionable heading into next week. Two key players that could have a tremendous impact on their next game.
Betting Trends to Know
When it comes to the spread, the Dolphins enter this contest with a 4-7-2 record including failing to cover in each of their last two contests. When playing as at least 3.5-point favorites, the Dolphins are 1-3-2 against the spread. Six Dolphins games this season have gone above the point total (50%), with the over-hitting in four of their last six contests (66%).
Buffalo Bills Performance Recap and Analysis
The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills split their series as the Bills took down the Jets at home 20-12. The Bills (10-3) remain in the top spot in the AFC playoff standings thanks to the victory and are two games ahead of the Dolphins in the division.
The Buffalo offense has been one of the most consistent attacks in the NFL however, playing in the cold Buffalo weather, the offense was only able to produce 232 yards. Josh Allen totaled 147 passing yards and scored a touchdown both through the air and on the ground. Overall, the unit ranks second in the league with almost 400 yards of offense per game, while averaging 27.2 points.
The Bills’ defense preserved Buffalo’s opportunity to win in their last game as they held the Jets’ offensive unit to 12 points and while collecting two turnovers. Although the Bills’ defense remains one of the best in the league, they have a challenging matchup in Week 15 against a strong Dolphin’s offense.
Key Injuries
Keep an eye on the NFL injury report as defensive leader Von Miller will miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury, while OL Ryan Bates and DT Jordan Phillips could also miss time and impact the outcome of the game.
Betting Trends to Know
In 12 games the Bills have successfully covered the spread six times (50%), however Buffalo has covered the spread just twice in their last seven games (29%). Additionally, when playing as at least 9.5-point favorites, the Bills are 2-3 ATS. In terms of the Over/Under, Bills games have gone under the total in 10 of their 13 games (77%) and in each of their last three contests.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
According to NFL odds, the Buffalo Bills are currently 6.5-point spread (-110) favorites for this matchup. In terms of the moneyline, the Bills are -305 to get the win at home, while the Miami Dolphins odds are +255 road underdogs to pick up the win. When it comes to the total, the Over/Under has been set at 44.5 points (-110).
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Picks
In terms of Dolphins vs Bills betting picks, back the Buffalo Bills on the money line in this one. The Dolphins are a solid football team, but they are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Chargers last week and they are also dealing with the injury bug. Additionally, Buffalo is one of the best football teams at home. They pushed their home record to home record to 5-1 on the year and Buffalo is on fire after collecting four straight victories. This one should be no sweat when it comes to Buffalo Bills picks. (Buffalo ML, -305)
With the game set in Buffalo in primetime, this matchup has Under written all over it. The Bills are one of the best Under teams in the league, with 10 of their 13 games going under the number. Meanwhile, the Dolphins could potentially be without some starters on the offensive side of the ball, including Tyreek Hill. I expect this to be a hard-fought battle that will have the clock rolling constantly. Expect it to be a low scoring and cold game on Saturday night. (Under 44.5, -110)
We’re backing the Bills to cover this cold one at home in primetime. The Buffalo Bills are starting to catch fire, and this is a crucial game in terms of the division. If the Buffalo Bills grab a victory, they can really separate themselves in the division and secure a playoff spot. Additionally, Buffalo is trying to lock up the top overall spot in the AFC, so getting a decisive victory here will be important to them. The Dolphins haven’t covered the spread in their last two games, and they’ll drop their third straight in this one. (Bills -6.5, -110)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Score Prediction
In this clash in the middle of December, the Bills should come out firing and take this one from the Dolphins at home. This is more about Buffalo’s form than it is about the Dolphins as a squad. Since their brief two-game losing run, the Bills have won four straight and are playing excellent football on all sides of the field.
The previous meeting between these teams ended in a two-point Miami victory, but that contest took place in Miami. This NFL matchup is taking place in Buffalo, in the middle of December, in a stadium where the Bills will have a gigantic advantage. Miami will be incredibly limited to injuries from some offensive weapons, and this one could get ugly. When it comes to Dolphins vs Bills betting picks, back the Bills to take control of the AFC East.
Bills 23, Dolphins 9
NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-110)
If you love sports and want more sports betting information follow us as @InsidersBetDig on Twitter and sign up to our mailing list for free betting picks.
More related to Dolphins vs Bills
- Miami Dolphins Season Odds, Props and Futures
- Buffalo Bills Season Odds, Props and Futures
- Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills