The NFL schedule for the regular season is over, and the NFL team standings have slotted the top teams into the NFL playoff bracket. Ready to battle it out for the chance to win the Super Bowl.
With the NFL matchups this week ready, we’ll give you our Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills prediction and odds breakdown.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
The odds for their Wild Card game are available, and we can see that the odds given to the Buffalo Bills make them substantial favorites.
The moneyline odds given to Miami Dolphins to win this game are +490. The odds given to the Buffalo are -600, and the Bills have won 50% of their previous matches with these NFL odds.
The point spread is set at 13.5. Buffalo (-13.5) is listed at +105, while Miami (-13.5) is listed at -120, as of publication.
The total points line is set to 43.5. The odds are listed at -110 for the over and the under. Even though Miami’s starting quarterback is uncertain, were surprised that the total points number is not set higher.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Information
NFL Wild Card Playoffs Game: Miami Dolphins (9-8) vs. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Location of the game: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Time: Saturday, January 15th, 2023, 1:00 p.m. ET
How to watch: CBS
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis
Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills meet for the third time on the NFL schedule for the wildcard playoffs round. The Buffalo Bills will have better NFL odds and be the heavy favorite since their season was better, and they are many people’s picks to win the Super Bowl. However, you need to read our Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills prediction to find out more about the Bills’ chances. Claiming the city’s first professional sports championship.
Miami Dolphins Performance Recap and Analysis
When looking at Miami’s NFL stats, it’s easy to find a way to rationalize tanking Miami in our Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills prediction.
The Miami Dolphins rank sixth in the NFL with 364.5 total yards per game (ypg), fourth in passing yards (265.4 ypg), and 11th in points scored (23.4 points per game). However, expect Miami’s 25th-ranked defense (99.2 ypg) to struggle against Buffalo’s very good rushing defense.
Defensively, the Dolphins 18th ranked defense (337.8 ypg) struggled with the Bills’ offense, especially considering the Dolphins are ranked 27th in passing yards, giving up 234.8 YPG. Miami’s defense is ranked 24th in points per game, giving up an average of 23.5 points per game. Miami is also unlikey to capitalize on mistakes and force turnovers, as they ranked 30th in the NFL. Even though, Buffalo is ranked 30th in turnovers.
Key Injuries
The Miami Dolphins will play without a few players because of injury, according to the NFL injury report. The players include the following but none are more notable than Tua Tagovailoa:
- QB Skylar Thompson (Questionable)
- OT Terron Armstead (Questionable)
- OT Kendall Lamm (Questionable)
- QB Tua Tagovailoa (Questionable)
- WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Questionable)
Betting Trends to Know
Miami Dolphins betting trendings to know is that they are one of the first teams to beat the Bills this season. They won their week three game against them by a narrow 21-19 socre. Although the Dolphins’ performance in their last five games could have been more encouraging, it might be challenging for them to beat the Buffalo.
Miami is 0-4 ats in the last four playoff games, and the under is 5-0 in the last five Dolphins’ wildcard games. The underdog is 4-1-1 ats in the last six meetings between the Dolphins and Bills.
Buffalo Bills Performance Recap and Analysis
Buffalo Bills had an incredible performance in the NFL 2022/2023 season. Even though the Bills played sixteen games, due to the Damar Hamlin injury, unlike the rest of the league that played 17 games. They still finished as the second-best in their AFC standings behind Kansas City Chiefs.
Josh Allen leads Buffalo’s excellent offense, which ranked second in the league in total yards (397.6 ypg), seventh in passing yards (258.1 ypg), seventh in rushing yards (139.5 ypg), and second in points scored (28.4 points per game).
Defensively, the Bills have the advantage again, ranked sixth overall in total yards (319.1 ypg), fifth in rushing defense (104.6 ypg), 15th in passing (214.6 ypg), and second in points allowed (17.9 points per game)
Key Injuries
The Buffalo Bills will be playing this game without one player for sure. Damar Hamlin, who plays safety for Buffalo, is the talk of the league, listed on the injured reserve, and serving as a point of inspiration for Buffalo.
Betting Trends to Know
Buffalo Bills betting trends to know is that they are the winner of seven straight matches, and this team clinched the 2nd position in their standings. They are also more than 10 points favorites to win this match, finishing the season 6-1 at home.
The over is 7-1 in the last eight games in Buffalo between the Bills and Dolphins. Buffalo are 1-4 ats against teams with a winning record. The over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five home games and last five playoff games.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Picks
Looking back to their last three meetings, Buffalo won two of those matchups, while the Dolphins won one, and we’re one of the few teams to hand the Bills a loss this season.
However, our NFL picks and parlays for this game are the Buffalo Bills, to score about 25.5 points, with total points for the game ending around 35.5 points.
Moneyline
The Moneyline odds for the Buffalo Bills are listed at -700, and it is not surprising that they are the favorites in this AFC wildcard matchup this weekend. The Dolphins are listed at +490. We’re taking the Bills to win but those odds don’t have much value.
Over/Under
The two teams ranked in the top 11 of the NFL in points per game and top ten in the league in passing total yards per game this season. However, Miami’s offense is not the same without Tua at the helm.
This pick comes down to how many points Miami can put up this weekend, because Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills can and will score a bunch of points. With Tua out, we are leaning toward the under.
Spread
You can play the Bills -13.5 (+105) as a bettor, especially considering Miami will struggle offensively if they are starting anyone but Tua.
Looking back to the Bills’ last seven games, which they won. However, they might be better on NFL point spreads in the Wild Card round than they have shown all season, going 8-7-1 ATS .
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Score Prediction
Playing a game with a team that scored over 30-plus points in their last three games will be challenging for a team like Miami Dolphins.
Moreover, with the Dolphins starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, likely being absent in this game, making it more difficult for the visitors to score, let alone pull off the upset.
Our picks are all on the Bills. Final score: Buffalo Bills 24 – Miami Dolphins 10.
NFL Picks: Buffalo Bills Moneyline, Bills +13.5, under.
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