Time to kick off the NFL Playoffs as the New England Patriots will travel to Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills for the third time this year. These two teams split the regular-season matchups, each winning on the road. The Patriots are 10-7 and are coming off a 33-24 road loss against the Miami Dolphins. The Bills are 11-6 and are riding a four-game winning streak after defeating the New York Jets 27-10 at home.
Patriots at Bills Stats
Looking at the New England stats
The Patriots are a solid offensive team as their 27.2 points per game this season was good for sixth in the NFL. They were able to run the ball effectively as they ran for 126.5 yards per game. They were led offensively by rookie quarterback Mac Jones, who had a 51.3 QBR and threw for 3,801 yards with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. In his two games against Buffalo, he went 16-of-35 for 164 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
New England has been one of the best defensive teams in the league as they are fourth in yards allowed (310.8 per game) and second in points per game (17.8 points per game). Linebacker Matthew Judon has been leading the charge for the defense as he recorded a team-high 12.5 sacks and a pass deflection throughout the regular season.
Looking at the Buffalo stats
Buffalo has one of the more complete teams in the postseason as offensively, and they are fifth with 381.9 yards per game and third averaging 28.4 points. Quarterback Josh Allen continued to showcase that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL as he finished the regular season with a 61 QBR while completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 4,407 yards with 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.
There is only one defense better at points per game than New England, and that was Buffalo, as they allowed 17 points on 272.8 yards (both led the league). Safety Micah Hyde was doing great in coverage as he finished with ten pass deflections, five interceptions, and a forced fumble.
Betting Trends for New England at Buffalo
- The over has hit in 9 of the last 13 Patriots games
- Buffalo is 13-3 in their last 15 games at home
- Buffalo is 4-1 in their previous five games
- Buffalo went 5-1 vs. AFC East foes
Who to Bet Patriots at Bills
The Buffalo Bills are currently a four-point home favorite according to the top sportsbooks across the country. That does not feel high enough as Bill Belichick won in Buffalo due to the weather conditions and completely taking the ball out of Mac Jones’ hands, and he can’t do that on Saturday night.
Allen threw for 314 yards with three touchdowns as well as running for 64 yards in New England the day after Christmas and should be able to do similar damage again. I do not believe the Patriots have a way of limiting his production, so go with the Buffalo Bills to win by at least a full touchdown to cover the spread.