You may remember the torrid start to last year’s season for Lamar Jackson. After three games Lamar Jackson stats included 10 touchdown passes, 12 total touchdowns, and nearly 1,000 total yards.
He looked every bit the player who was a unanimous MVP winner in 2019.
Injuries happened, both to him and his already thin wide receiving corps, and ultimately it was not a great year for Jackson. But it was another look into the unique talent that is Jackson, and what he can do when he is healthy and surrounded by good weapons. And coming into the nfl 2023-24 season, this might be the best collection of weapons he’s ever played with.
To Have 4000+ Regular Season Passing Yards (+350)
It might seem like a slight to have Jackson paying longer odds than Jimmy Garoppolo (+175), Gardner Minshew (+300), and Sam Howell (+300). It’s simply based on the Lamar Jackson stats that we’ve seen over the years.
Jackson has never come close to 4,000 passing yards in a season, and only once in his four seasons as the full-time starter has he gone over 3,000. He had 3,127 passing yards in 2019.
In truth, this bet should pay off at a higher rate. It would be truly unexpected if Jackson went over 4,000 passing yards, even with better wide receivers. The Ravens like to run the football, and Jackson is at his most dangerous when he plays with the freedom to run.
Regular Season Passing Yards
- Over 3400.5 (-112)
- Under 3400.5 (-112)
NFL player stats are largely dependent on the team and the skill of the players around him. That’s why this over/under is so far above what we’ve seen for Jackson in his career. It’s nearly 300 yards above his career high because he is now throwing the football to Odell Beckham Jr., a healthy Rashod Bateman, and rookie Zay Flowers.
Just how much Lamar Jackson stats will be impacted by this new wide receiver group remains to be seem, but it should be substantial.
Regular Season Rushing Yards
- Over 725.5 (+100)
- Under 725.5 (-120)
The reason, of course, that Jackson is a longshot to get to 4,000 passing yards isn’t because he isn’t a capable passer. It’s because he’s an incredible runner of the football.
This totals line, however, undersells his ability. In each of the last four years Jackson has gone over 725 yards rushing, and that includes the last two seasons when he missed time with injury. Twice he’s gone over 1,000 yards rushing, and for his career, he averages 63.7 yards rushing per game.
As surprising as it would be to see Jackson go over 4,000 yards passing, it would be equally surprising to see him go under 725 yards rushing. The NFL odds have the over at even money, and that is a bet well worth taking.
Most Regular Season Quarterback Rushing Yards
| Player | Odds |
| Justin Fields | +170 |
| Lamar Jackson | +250 |
| Jalen Hurts | +400 |
| Anthony Richardson | +500 |
When Jackson ran for over 1,200 yards in 2019, the next highest total for a quarterback was Kyler Murray’s 544 yards. Only three quarterbacks in the league went over 400 yards rushing.
This is the Lamar Jackson effect, that so many great rushing quarterbacks now lead their team, and it means that Jackson will have plenty of company in trying to lead the league in quarterback rushing yards.
NFL predictions have Justin Fields of the Bears as the favorite, and he is coming off 1,143 yards rushing last season. Jalen Hurts ran for 760 yards last season, and 784 in 2021. Which means if Jackson can stay healthy, he can go over 1,000 yards and potentially win another quarterback rushing title.
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