The Carolina Panthers saw their NFC South Division hopes erased when they lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. Their season finale against the New Orleans Saints is about development and contract bonuses. The Panthers and Saints will play in Week 18 of the NFL schedule at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
It is one of the few NFL matchups this week that fans could not care less about, as it has no impact on the NFL playoff bracket, NFL team standings, or top draft pick positioning.
Here is a breakdown of the Panthers vs. Saints spread and players to watch and don’t miss The NFL Playoff Bracket.
Carolina Panthers Season Forecast
The Panthers have been among the worst offenses in the league but have shown some life of late, scoring at least 16 points in each of their last five games.
The NFL team stats show they are scoring 21.1 points per game for the season, which ranks 18th, despite ranking 27th with 312.7 yards of total offense per game. They are 28th in passing at 185.3 yards per game and 12th in rushing at 127.4 yards per game. Their 19 giveaways are tied for ninth.
Defensively, the Panthers allow 22.9 points per game, which ranks 22nd, and 353.1 yards of offense per game, which also ranks 22nd. They are 23rd against the pass, allowing 231.7 passing yards per game, and 19th against the run, allowing 121.4 yards rushing. Their 16 takeaways are tied for 26th.
Panthers vs. Saints Odds
Moneyline
Opening Line
The Panthers opened at +196.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
It has since moved to +150. Perhaps it is because more people are betting on the Panthers straight up, even though their chance to win the division vanished in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay.
What May Lose the Bet
It is generally tough to win at the Caesars Superdome, and the Saints will draw out the game for as long as they can with longer possessions, leaving less margin for error.
Spread Line
Opening Line
The Panthers vs. Saints spread showed the Panthers as 5-point underdogs at -110 odds.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The line has moved to +3.5 at -115 odds. There is no glaring reason why those odds shifted except that maybe public betting favors the Saints.
What May Lose the Bet
The Saints just beat the Eagles and Browns in successive weeks. Even if Jalen Hurts didn’t play in that game for Philadelphia, the Saints have won three straight and the aforementioned games on the road, showing they are a quality football team.
They just ran out of time to make a run in the New Orleans Saints standings and make the playoffs.
Total
Opening Line
The over opened at 39.5 points.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
It has since moved to 41.5 with -115 odds. That is likely because of star cornerback Jaycee Horn being placed on the NFL injury report for the Panthers, among other injuries facing the Saints.
What May Lose the Bet
Quarterback play. The Saints’ unwillingness to play Jameis Winston over Andy Dalton is likely keeping the more talented QB benched while the Panthers have played quarterback roulette all season.
Carolina Panthers Betting Trend to Know
The Panthers are 8-8 against the spread and on over/under this season. The Carolina Panthers’ schedule shows they are 1-6 straight-up away from home. However, they have been decent as underdogs with a 6-2 record when underdogs of 6.5 points or less and 8-4 as underdogs overall.
New Orleans Saints Season Forecast
The Saints have been among the best teams defensively, yet really struggled to win games due to their offense.
Defensively, they allowed 20.9 points per game, ranked 13th, and 321.8 yards of offense per game, ranked ninth. They were third against the pass in, allowing 193.9 yards passing per game, and 21st against the rush, allowing 127.9 yards rushing per game. What really hurt was only securing 11 takeaways, which was last in the league.
Offensively, the Saints scored 20.2 points per game, which was 22nd, and gained 335.6 yards per game, which ranked 19th. They were 16th in passing at 220.6 yards per game and 19th in rushing at 115.0 yards per game. Their 24 giveaways were 29th.
Moneyline
Opening Line
The Saints opened at -225.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
Fans are probably betting on the Panthers because the line has moved to -180.
What Makes This Bet Lose
The Carolina Panthers have shown an ability to move the ball offensively, and if this game turns into a quicker pace and the Saints fall behind early, it will be a tough uphill battle.
Spread Line
Opening Line
The Panthers vs. Saints spread opened with the Saints favored by 5.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The line has since moved to Saints -3.5 at -105 odds, likely due to injuries on both sides of the ball for the Saints.
What Makes This Bet Lose
If it is going to be a close game, the Saints could be up by one possession late, and a late score cuts it to three.
Total
Opening Line
The under opened at 39.5.
How the Line Has Moved and Why
The line has moved to under 41.5 at -105 odds, perhaps because of injuries to defenders on both sides.
What Makes This Bet Lose
If the Panthers control this game’s tempo, it will likely cause it to shoot up in points.
New Orleans Saints Betting Trend to Know
The New Orleans Saints have been as advertised for NFL picks against the spread, matching their 7-9 record, and are also 6-10 on over/under. They are 4-3 straight up at home. As favorites, they are 2-3, which all came when favored by 6.5 points or less.
Every game they have been involved in, but one was in the 0 to 6.5 range, whether they were favored or underdogs, which isn’t uncommon for NFL point spreads.
Most Profitable Players of this Matchup to Bet On
Here is a look at three players to watch and an educated guess on props per NFL player stats.
Sam Darnold, Panthers QB – Darnold has only eclipsed more than 250 yards passing once in the last five games, and it was last week against the Buccaneers. Playing a tougher pass defense, the game plan should be for Carolina to run, so the under on Darnold passing yards is definitely in play.
DJ Moore, Panthers WR – The clear No. 1 receiver is as good as it gets. Moore has 878 receiving yards, 62 catches (36 more than any teammate), and seven touchdowns. Picking him as an anytime touchdown feels like a safe bet because of his explosiveness.
Alvin Kamara, Saints RB – Kamara is the top rusher and second-best pass-catcher for the Saints. He should get plenty of touches with 200 rushes and 56 receptions for 1,278 scrimmage yards, but he only has four touchdowns. Taking a yardage prop over 100 seems doable.
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