Pick Analysis
The 2024 NFL preseason is just a few days away and bettors are starting to come out of the woodwork. Many bettors stay away from the preseason. Others can’t wait until the regular season begins and wager on the preseason games. Betting the preseason can be profitable, although you have to choose your spots.
You can give yourself a better chance of coming out ahead in August by following some basic NFL preseason betting tips.
Among the key factors to look for are coaching NFL preseason betting strategies tendencies, quarterback rotation, and the NFL odds each week.
Coaching Tendencies
Not all NFL coaches treat preseason the same. Some coaches hate to lose, even in the preseason. Other coaches are more concerned with avoiding injuries and getting a look at the depth players. They’re not interested in wins and losses in games that don’t count in the NFL standings.
John Harbaugh is a preseason legend with his 40-20 record against the spread (ATS) in exhibition games. That wasn’t enough to prevent the Ravens from going 1-2 last season. Sean McDermott is a solid 15-8 ATS, Jim Harbaugh is 10-6, and Robert Saleh is 6-3 ATS.
The Ravens coach is even more impressive in openers, going 14-2 in Week 1, while Jim Harbaugh is just 1-3 in openers. Jim Harbaugh could place a little more emphasis on winning this preseason after returning to the NFL.
At the opposite end of the spectrum are coaches are Dan Quinn, who has a 6-14-1 spread record, Nick Sirianni, who is 2-5-1 ATS, along with Kevin O’Connell (1-5) and Brian Daboll (0-6).
In Week 1, John Harbaugh’s Ravens play the Eagles, while Robert Saleh’s Jets play Washington. The Jets play the Giants in Week 3, as the only three games this preseason where one of the better preseason coaches plays one of the ones who don’t place much emphasis on exhibition games.
Quarterback Rotation
NFL preseason betting tips have to mention quarterback rotations. Starters aren’t going to play much in the preseason.
A veteran quarterback like Aaron Rodgers knows where they need to be when the season starts. That’s why he hasn’t played in the preseason since 2018. Other quarterbacks may need the game experience, so you can expect to see them more, but not too much.
Teams don’t want to lose their starting QB in the preseason. Teams with quality quarterback depth had an edge over those who didn’t.
NFL head coaches often say how long the starters and second-team players will play along with the QBs. This season, keep an eye on Las Vegas, Minnesota, and New England, among others, where the quarterback decision isn’t finalized. You could see the top two quarterbacks playing a bit longer than normal on teams where there is a quarterback competition.
You can also find good competition for the third-string quarterback position.
Most teams carry three quarterbacks but have four in training camp. Case Keenum and Tim Boyle could see more playing time in Houston this year, as CJ Stroud and Davis Mills have the top two spots locked up. Minnesota has Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall battling for a roster spot, which isn’t a bad situation for the team.
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Odds Can Point the Way
While you might be able to find an edge in one or two games each week, your NFL preseason betting tips also note that underdogs of three points or less have gone 158-110 against the spread since 2015. That’s a method used by those who release NFL expert picks today.
The NFL preseason odds have also yielded a few trends that bear watching regarding totals. Since 2014, betting the under in games where the total is 37 or higher has gone 201-130-8, which is just over 60%.
Betting the over in games where the over/under is 36.5 or less has also yielded a long-term profit. It’s just not as profitable as the under trend.
Betting the preseason is a different animal than betting the regular season, but if do your research and limit the number of games you bet, you’ll have a good chance to start season off strong.
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