There were many anomalies with the offensive and defensive rookies of the year in the NFL last season. For one, the New York Jets swept the awards last season with their two first two-round picks. Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner last year was a rarity for anyone who bets Rookie of the Year futures.
Only three pairs of teammates, including Wilson and Gardner have ever swept the awards. It last happened with the 2017 New Orleans Saints when Alvin Kamara and Marshon Lattimore with picked. The 1967 Detroit Lions also had Mel Farr and Lem Barney win as well.
Here’s a look at what to expect from this season:
Return likely of a quarterback winner
Last season, NFL odds may have favored a quarterback not winning Rookie of the Year. It was a weak quarterback class, only producing one first-round choice in Kenny Pickett, who had an up-and-down debut season with the Steelers. This season, however, will see a major chance in Rookie of the Year futures.
The 2024 NFL Draft saw three quarterbacks taken in the first four picks and four selected in the first two rounds. While the four teams who chosen quarterbacks high aren’t likely to be Super Bowl contenders, there will be a need for them to play right away. Carolina picked Bryce Young with the top pick and he should put up strong numbers if he is able to stay healthy. Young is +450 at most books, second in the odds.
C.J. Stroud (+900) and Anthony Richardson (+900) are also among the top five in the odds at many sportsbooks.
Can an old favorite position break through?
NFL history is littered with a history of players being at the top of the Rookie of the Year futures from the running back position. Texas product Bijan Robinson is the current favorite to win the award at +300. Running backs usually have an easier time adjusting to the NFL and can be put in a strong position to succeed if they go to a team with a strong offensive concept.
Robinson was drafted by the Falcons, who showed promise in a rebuilding season last year. The biggest question for Robinson being able to produce big NFL player stats will be how the Falcons quarterback situation plays out. Atlanta drafted Desmond Ridder at quarterback last season, and him being able to take pressure off the running game will be a big component to the Falcons’ success.
Rush the quarterback
Rookie of the Year futures shows that on defense pass rushers have the easiest time bringing home the award. Before Gardner won last season, a linebacker, defensive lineman or edge rusher had won four years in a row. It’s not surprise that Alabama product Will Anderson, who should help any team produce good NFL team stats, is the favorite to win at +400.
Anderson went to Houston, where he should see a lot of playing time. Not much is expected of the Texans on the NFL schedule this season. Houston, however, does play in a weak division that may provide opportunities for Anderson to get after the quarterback.
Can Carter fight through the noise?
Jalen Carter had a brutal offseason since winning the national championship with Georgia to cap the 2023 season. There was some doubt if he would slide down the draft after he was involved in a car accident in the offseason that saw two members of the Georgia program pass away. Some thought Carter may not play on the NFL schedule at all, but he pleaded no contest for reckless driving and street racing and was awarded 12 monthss of probation.
Carter is going to a Philadelphia Eagles team that has a strong pass rush and defensive line. He should be a major player there and may be worth a look at +650.
Other defensive contenders
People betting NFL picks and parlays throughout the season should keep an eye out for other contenders. Raiders edge rusher Tyree Wilson (+900), Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon (+900), and Lions cornerback Christian Gonzalez (+950) will also round out the top five players to contend for defensive rookie of the year.
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