2024 NHL Draft: Macklin Celebrini Will Be The No. 1 Pick

The 2024 NHL Draft may be the Macklin Celebrini show. He is about to light up NHL scores and odds. They are not even on the board for him to be chosen first anymore. But we are zeroed in on Americans in the first round on Friday night. There were six U.S.-born players in the first round a year ago, including two in the top 10.

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Even though the NHL odds do not favor five-plus U.S.-born players in the first round, and there are only a handful of American-born players projected among the top 30 players, it’s still a sharp bet given the lucrative odds.

There are only two U.S. National Team Development Program players listed in the top 30 of NHL Central Scouting list of North American skaters. But there are always surprises in the first round, and Americans don’t all come from the USANTDP.

It’s worth a shot although the implied probability is only at 35% for Americans being picked.

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NHL Draft Betting Analysis

The 2024 NHL Draft is loaded with Russian-born players, though there is always an air of mystery with Russians. Matvei Michkov was considered one of the most talented players in last year’s draft, and he fell to the Philadelphia Flyers at No. 7 due to his unsettled contract status.

The Over/Under for defensemen chosen in the first round is set at 11.5, with heavy juice laid to the Under, and for good reason. Though there could be a run on defensemen chosen in the late top 10 or even teens, there are only six blueliners projected in Central Scouting’s top 30 prospects. Recent trends (see below) indicate forwards are more likely to get selected in the first round.

NHL Draft Betting Trends

• There have been at least five American-born players chosen in the first round in each of the past three years.
• There haven’t been more than 10 defensemen chosen in the first round since 2018 (Under 11.5, -175)
• There has not been a goalie chosen in the first round since 2021, and none are projected to go in the top 32 in any mock draft this year

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NHL Draft Betting Picks

Given the fact, Celebrini and Levshunov are near locks to go Nos. 1-2 at the 2024 NHL Draft. Cayden Lindstrom has a roughly 60% implied probability of being picked fourth. And Demidov could either go No. 3 to Anaheim or No. 5 to Montreal.

Potential wrenches could be thrown into this pick. Lindstrom could be selected by Anaheim. He is known to drift from the board periodically. Columbus does some Columbus-type things. However, new Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell tends to draft more conservatively than his predecessor Jarmo Kekalainen. Thus, taking Demidov, the No. 2 international skater per Central Scouting, to go at No. 5 at these odds is a tasty NHL expert pick.

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