At the beginning of the 2021-22 season, the Colorado Avalanche odds were +550, putting them as favorites to win the Stanley Cup.
They rolled through the playoffs, losing just four games in the postseason with sweeps in the first round (against the Nashville Predators) and the Western Conference Finals (against the Edmonton Oilers).
Perhaps just as amazing was that the team with second-best odds, the Tampa Bay Lighting at +600, was Colorado’s opponent in the Stanley Cup Final.
But as we know, the only thing hard than winning a championship is repeating as a champion. With that in mind, how are things shaping up for the 2022-23 season? Can the Avalanche repeat as Stanley Cup Champions?
Where are the Odds Today?
As of writing, the Colorado Avalanche odds to win the Stanley Cup are +400. However, unlike a year ago, the Avs are much further in front of the rest of the field. The next closest team in the odds is again Tampa Bay, but this time at +900.
Looking solely at the Western Conference, the next closest teams are the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton, both at +1800.
Vegas will be in a world of hurt as goaltender Robin Lehner will miss the entirety of the season due to hip surgery.
Oilers’ Goaltenders
As for the Oilers, they addressed their goaltending woes that plagued them throughout the postseason by signing free agent netminder Jack Campbell, but did they do enough to provide the needed support for superstar forwards Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
Things are much tighter in the Eastern Conference, with the Toronto Maple Leafs (+1000), Florida Panthers (+1000), and Carolina Hurricanes (+1200) all jockeying for position among the favorites.
How Has Colorado’s Roster Changed?
Two big pieces of the Avalanche’s run to the Cup left the team via free agency in the offseason. Starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper inked a five-year, $26.25 million deal with the Washington Capitals.
Kuemper started 57 games for Colorado last season, posting a 37-12-4 record, a 2.54 GAA, a .921 save percentage, and five shutouts. He also won 10 games during the playoffs, but an injury forced him to miss a few contests.
On the front end, center Nazem Kadri signed a seven-year, $49 million contract with the Calgary Flames. Kadri had a career-defining year in 2021-22, putting up career bests in NHL player stats for assists (59) and points (87).
He also scored seven goals and eight assists in 16 playoff games and was an NHL matchups nightmare.
Georgiev as Starter
Alexandar Georgiev is set to take over as the starter in net after the Avalanche acquired him in a trade with the New York Rangers.
Georgiev was a pending restricted free agent (RFA), so Colorado signed him to a three-year extension after his arrival. With the Rangers, Georgiev had a 58-48-11 record, a 2.94 GAA, a .908 save percentage, and eight shutouts, but he wasn’t in a position to take over the starting job from Rangers teammate Igor Shesterkin, thus the trade.
Replacing Kadri will be a bit more difficult, and it will require a team effort to account for the difference in production.
NHL Games Played
Alex Newhook is set to slot in as the second-line center, taking the lineup vacancy. However, he has fewer NHL games played (77) than Kadri’s point total (87) from a year ago.
Still, Newhook has a ton of upside as the 16th overall pick in the 2019 Draft. He’s a young player with a ton of upside poised to impress Avs fans this season.
If the Avs wanted to go a different route, they could break up the line combination of Gabriel Landeskog-Nathan MacKinnon-Mikko Rantanen by moving either Landeskog or Rantanen to a second-line center role and moving Valeri Nichushkin or Artturi Lehkonen into the first line winger role.
Nichushkin in this Offseason
Colorado just extended Nichushkin this offseason with an eight-year, $49 million deal, while Lehkonen signed a five-year, $22.5 million deal over the summer as well.
Both are expected to fill top six winger roles, but either player appearing on the first line may depend on how ready Newhook is for more minutes.
What Weaknesses Could Derail the Avalanche?
The Avs have a stout defensive core led by Cale Makar and Devon Toews, but the depth in the pipeline is incredible.
Bowen Byram was the fourth overall pick in the 2019 Draft, and while he has struggled at times with health concerns, he’s shown flashes of brilliance when he’s in the lineup, which may make Samuel Girard expendable via trade for cap relief and additional roster depth.
NHL Team Stats
The high-end star power in the lineup makes the Avalanche a juggernaut up front, lighting up the scoreboard and the NHL team stats on a nightly basis.
Furthermore, the bottom six forwards are still dangerous, dominating opponents with smart, physical play in the defensive zone that frustrates opponents into submission.
The single biggest lineup influence on the Colorado Avalanche odds is whether Georgiev and backup Pavel Francouz are ready for expanded roles with the team this season.
Georgiev’s career high is 33 games played, and as the projected starter, he’ll likely be called upon to play in around 55 this year. Similarly, Francouz has played in 57 games in his career and did not play at all during the 2020-21 season.
Avalanches Lineup Influence
If Georgiev is set to be a starter, Colorado would be in good shape. If not, don’t be surprised to see the Avs explore the trade market.
Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson could be an option here, though he would likely command a king’s ransom in return (meaning multiple picks and prospects).
Jonathan Bernier, who previously played for the Avs in the 2017-18 season, could return to Colorado as the odd man out in New Jersey as well.
The NHL schedule for the Avalanche begins on October 12 as Colorado hosts the Chicago Blackhawks, beginning the run for back-to-back Cups.
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