Tampa Bay Lightning are looking like the Stanley Cup contenders we expected but are uncharacteristically struggling to keep the puck out of their net on average this season.
The Buffalo Sabres might not win every game, but they are vastly improved and fun to watch, game in and game out.
Tampa Bay travels to Buffalo for their first game in back-to-back nights and their second head-to-head matchup with the Sabres this season.
We’ll dig into the stats, odds, and trends in our Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres betting analysis and get you ready for puck drop, scheduled for 7 p.m. ET from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. You can catch this game on ESPN+ or NHLPP.
Last Game Records
The Tampa Bay Lighting and Buffalo Sabres met in the first of four head-to-head matchups on November 5th. The Lighting won the game 5-3.
In their last game, the Lightning defeated the St. Louis Blues 5-2. Braden Points scored twice, while Nicholas Paul, Alex Killorn, and Brandon Hagel also scored. Andrei Vasilevskiy made twenty-five saves in the win.
In their last game, the Sabres lost 2-1 to the New Jersey Devils 3-1. Victor Olofsson scored the only goal for the Sabres, his eleventh of the year. Craig Anderson made forty-one saves in the loss.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Buffalo Sabres Betting Analysis
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning enter Monday night’s matchup with a 12-7-1 record, having won four of their previous five NHL games.
This streak has helped Tampa Bay maintain pace in the NHL standings in a tough Atlantic Divison. Three of these games exceeded a +1.5 goal spread and hit the over 6.5 goals.
Kucherov at the NHL Player Stars
Nikita Kucherov is among the NHL player stats leaders and leads the Lightning with thirty-one points (ten goals, twenty-one assists).
The Tampa Bay Lightning team stats tell the story of a team struggling in their end more than anyone expected.
Lightning Averaging Numbers
Tampa Bay is averaging 3.45 goals per game on 31.6 shots, which you expect from the Eastern Conference champions from the last three seasons. However, the Lightning are averaging 3.10 goals against per game on 30.9 shots.
It’s a similar story for the Lightning’s special teams: the powerplay is operating as expected, but the penalty kill is struggling.
The Lightning has scored twenty powerplay goals and is converting on 25.6% of their chances. The penalty killers have given up seventeen powerplay goals against and are operating at 77.6%
Lightning’s NHL schedule
After reviewing Lightning’s NHL schedule, we think Jake Elliot will get the start for Lightning.
Tampa Bay is playing the Boston Bruins tomorrow night, and Andrei Vasilevskiy has started the last four games for the Lightning, which indicates a perfect time to start backup goalie Elliot.
Elliot has a 4-1-0 record, a 3.37 goals-against average, and a .891 save percentage. Elliot starting definitely makes the over a potential play as a part of our Lightning vs Sabres betting analysis and predictions.
Buffalo Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres started the year as one of the more surprising NHL teams. However, everything evens out in the end.
Sabres Standings
The Buffalo Sabres standings are a true reflection of where this team is: improving but not competitive enough yet in a very challenging division.
The Buffalo Sabres enter Monday’s matchup with a 9-12-0 record. The Sabres have lost three of their last five games. All five games have ended in a +1.5 goals spread, while three of these games hit the over of 6.5.
Tage Thompson’s Leadership
Tage Thompson has been one of the positive stories for the Sabres this season, leads the team in NHL player stats with twenty-six points (thirteen goals, thirteen assists), and is a prime prop bet target in our Lightning vs Sabres betting analysis.
The Sabres are averaging 3.62 goals per game on 32.3 shots while giving up 3.48 goals per game on 32.2 shots.
Sabres’ Powerplay
Buffalo’s powerplay is virtually even with Tampa Bay’s, scoring twenty-one powerplay goals and converting on 25.9 of their chances.
Much like Tampa Bay, Buffalo’s penalty killers could be better, giving up eighteen powerplay goals against (73.1% efficiency).
Since Eric Comrie has joined Ben Bishop on long-term injured reserve, Craig Anderson and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen have swapped starts. This leaves us uncertain as to who will start against the Lighting.
If Anderson starts, he has a 4-4-0 record, a 2.76 goals-against average, and a .917 save percentage. If Luukkonen starts, he has a 1-1-0 record, a 3.01 goals-against average, and a .898 save percentage.
NHL Injury Report
The only notable, non-injury reserve update to the NHL injury report is Sabres’ right-winger Rasmus Asplund, who is listed as out.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview
Before jumping into our NHL picks for our Lightning vs Sabres betting analysis, we need to know the NHL odds and each team’s betting records so far this season.
Moneyline
The Tampa Bay Lightning are among the heavier favorites on the moneyline for Monday’s NHL schedule.
The Lightning are listed with odds from -157 to -180, while we’ve found the Sabres listed between +135 and +150.
The Lightning have a 12-8 straight-up moneyline record, while the Sabres are 9-12 straight up on the moneyline.
Puck line
The Buffalo Sabres are listed at +1.5 on the puck line spread, with odds ranging from -160 to -186.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are listed at -1.5, with odds ranging from +125 to +155. The Sabres have a 9-12 record against the spread (ats), while the Lightning are 8-12 ats.
Total
If you are interested in the total goals line, it is listed at 6.5. The over is listed with odds ranging from -118 to -125, while the under is listed with odds ranging from +105 to -104.
Tampa Bay and Buffalo have very similar over/under records so far this season, with Tampa Bay having an 11-8 over/under record and Buffalo having a 9-12 over/under record.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Buffalo Sabres Betting Prediction
After reviewing our Lightning vs Sabres betting analysis, we’re struggling to find the ways Buffalo can win this matchup.
Even if this game is a battle of backup goalies, we see that favoring the Tampa Bay Lighting. We’ll take the Lightning as the favorites on the moneyline.
Who to Bet On?
We’re also taking the Lighting to cover the spread (+1.5). We think the pattern of both teams playing in games that clear a 1.5-goal spread will continue.
We expect another 5-3 or 6-4 Tampa Bay victory over Buffalo on Monday night. Finally, we’re taking the over in this game.
Both teams can score, hit the over often, have hit the over frequently recently, and are likely playing their backup goalies. That’s a recipe for a high-scoring game and a successful wager on the over.
NHL Pick: Lightning (-150)
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