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Stanley Cup Finals G3: Avalanche vs. Lightning Betting Analysis and Predictions

The end of dynasties can sneak up on the team going through the successful period. While the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions Tampa Bay Lightning have yet to lose at home in the finals, the first two games in Denver couldn’t have gone much worse.

The Colorado Avalanche won a tight one in overtime of Game 1 but bludgeoned the Lightning in Game 2, piling up seven goals in a shutout win.

Tampa Bay is hoping by being back home; they may be able to turn the tide against the hungry Avalanche. The Lightning won’t want to fall behind 3-0. With how Colorado’s offense has been humming in the postseason, rallying from such a deficit would likely be difficult even for a team with the amount of postseason experience the Lightning have.

Last Game records

The Avalanche beat the Lightning 7-0 in Game 2 Saturday night in Denver. Colorado leads the series 2-0.

Matchup information

Avalanche at Lightning Betting Analysis

Tampa Bay Analysis

The Lightning typically is more resilient following a loss than they displayed in Game 2. Since the first round of the 2020 playoffs, Tampa Bay is 18-2 in NHL matchups following a loss in the postseason.

This is the second consecutive series where the Lightning has ended up in such a position, but they rallied to win four straight to eliminate the Rangers.

Any sort of a comeback will require getting more pucks on the net. Tampa Bay hardly made Colorado goaltender Darcy Kuemper work at all in Game 2, only recording 16 shots. The Lightning’s power play also fell flat, going 0-for-3 on their opportunities.

According to the NHL betting stats, Tampa Bay still played a physical brand of hockey, outhitting Colorado 57-46 and recording 20 blocked shots. However, if the Lightning can’t threaten the Avalanche’s defense and generate more shots on the net, any effort at a comeback in this series will be a fruitless one.

Colorado Analysis

The Colorado Avalanche don’t have the appearance of a team that hasn’t played in a Stanley Cup Final in over 20 years. Colorado has now scored three or more goals in the first period during both games of this series. The Avalanche will have to see if that momentum can travel with them as they head to Florida.

Colorado was effective on the power play in Game 2, converting 2-of-4 opportunities. In addition to killing off all three of Tampa Bay’s opportunities, the Avalanche were also able to score shorthanded. Colorado defenseman Cale Makar continued to make his case for the Conn Smythe Trophy by scoring two goals.

Valeri Nichuskin also scored two goals for the Avalanche. Makar leads Colorado with 24 points in the postseason, while Mikko Rantanen (22 points) and Nathan Mackinnon (20) have also added 20 points during this postseason run.


When making your NHL betting picks, it is important to take a look at the injury list. Colorado center Nazem Kadri is listed as day-to-day with a thumb injury. Tampa Bay doesn’t have any injuries of note listed.

Avalanche at Lightning Betting preview

NHL betting odds have the Tampa Bay Lightning as a -108 favorite. The Avalanche are -107. The over/under for the game has been set at 6.0.

  • The first two games in this series went over the total.
  • Five of Tampa Bay’s last seven games have gone under the total.
  • The Lightning are 4-2 in their last six games when being favored on the moneyline.
  • The Avalanche are 8-2 in their last ten games when they are favorites.
  • Four of Colorado’s last six games have gone over the total.

Avalanche at Lightning Betting Prediction

The question as the series shifts back to Tampa Bay is what do the Lightning have left. Looking at the series before it started, Tampa Bay had a sizeable advantage in experience playing in championship series. However, Colorado has shown in the first two games that doesn’t mean much.

The Tampa Bay Lightning has made a living this postseason by transferring its status from an offensive juggernaut into being a team that relies more on defense.

Tampa Bay will need to rediscover some of its old offensive firepower if it wants to threaten Colorado. This is a spot where the Lightning will feel this is a must-win game.

While Tampa Bay may not be able to force this series into deep waters, expect the Lightning to muster up a strong performance and win a key matchup at home.

How to be Avalanche at Lightning

When making your NHL expert picks, Bet on the Lightning -107.

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