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Stanley Cup Finals G4: Avalanche vs. Lightning Betting Analysis and Predictions

Cliches often riddle sports. But in this year’s Stanley Cup Finals, the two-time defending champions Tampa Bay Lightning want to keep an old one alive. People who look at NHL standings may not think a series really starts until a team loses on home ice. With the Lightning’s backs against the wall, they responded in a big way in Game 3.

After falling behind 3-0 n the first two games on the road, Tampa Bay dug in and didn’t allow the Avalanche to score three goals in all of Game 3. Now, the question for the Lightning is if they can keep up the pressure. Despite winning by four goals, Tampa Bay still allowed the Avalanche to generate more shots on goal. Colorado won’t be eager to take its foot off the gas and will look to steal one in Tampa to have a chance to seal the series in Game 5 in Denver.

Last game records

Tampa Bay beat Colorado 6-2 in Tampa Bay Tuesday night. The Avalanche now lead the series 2-1.

Matchup information

Avalanche at Lightning Betting Analysis

Colorado Analysis

Despite not being able to keep up with the Lightning in Game 3, NHL expert picks will show Colorado still did a lot of good things in Game 4. The Avalanche scored on two of their four power-play opportunities. Colorado also was able to get 39 shots on goal.

Gabriel Landeskog scored both goals for the Avalanche. The first of those goals allowed the Avalanche to take a lead in the first period. Colorado will need to find a way to get better goaltending from Darcy Kuemper. Kuemper only had a save percentage of .773 in Game 3, allowing five goals in the 22 shots he faced.

Tampa Bay Analysis

NHL betting stats show it may be difficult for Tampa Bay to repeat some of the numbers its produced in Game 3. The Lightning went on the power play six times and was able to convert one of those opportunities into a goal. Much like in the other games in the series, the Tampa Bay Lightning was able to win in all of the little areas.

Tampa Bay held a 40-27 edge in hits, won 58.1 percent of faceoffs and held a 27-12 edge in blocked shots. The Lightning received a strong performance in net from Andrei Vasilevskiy, stopping 37 of the 39 shots he faced. Tampa Bay was also to see some of its biggest names contribute on the scoresheet.

Steven Stamkos and Pat Maroon both recorded goals in a four-goal second period.


Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said he believes winger Nikita Kucherov, who was injured in Game 3, will return for Game 4. However, Cooper didn’t guarantee he would return. Tampa Bay is also still waiting for center Brayden Point to report. Point is listed as day-to-day and missed Game 3.

  • Colorado is 48-51 against the puck line this season.
  • Tampa Bay is 50-52 against the puck line this season.
  • The over is 53-41 in the Avalanche’s games this season.
  • The over is 53-47 in the Lightning’s games this season.
  • Tampa Bay’s last three games have gone over the total.
  • The Lightning has won their last five games when they were the betting favorite.

Avalanche at Lightning Betting Preview

NHL betting odds have Tampa Bay as a -110 favorite. The Avalanche are -106. The over/under is set at 6.0 goals.

Avalanche at Lightning Betting Prediction

Anyone making NHL betting picks on this game will need to weigh how much home-ice advantage matters. The Avalanche are likely to outshoot Tampa Bay in every game of this series. The question for the Lightning will be if their shot-blocking and Vasilevskiy’s performance in net can slow down Colorado enough to grab a victory.

Keep an eye out to see if Kucherov can return for Tampa Bay. If he can’t go, that may make life easier on Colorado. Otherwise, if Tampa Bay can have its entire lineup together, even without point, the Lightning are poised to win another game at home and put pressure on the Colorado Avalanche to hold serve at home in Game 5.

How to bet on Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning

Bet Tampa Bay -110.

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