Sometimes, the NHL schedule gives us a midweek treat. Our treat this week: the Toronto Maple Leafs, a Stanley Cup contender, traveling to take on the Edmonton Oilers and the best player in the game, Connor McDavid. Wednesday night is a battle to claim the title of the best Canadian team in the NHL.
The Oilers and Maple Leafs are two of the best offensive NHL teams and are likely to put on an offensive clinic on Wednesday night. We’ll review the stats, trends, and odds before making our NHL picks and a Maple Leafs vs Oilers Score prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers Information
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers
Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Date and Time: Wednesday, March 1st, 2023, 8:00 PM ET
How to Watch: NHLPP | ESPN+ | Sportsnet
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers Last Records
This is the first of two NHL games between the Maple Leafs and Oilers in the 2022-23 season. We have no head-to-head data from this season to use in our Maple Leafs vs Oilers score prediction.
However, Toronto won both games in 2021-22, averaging 4.5 goals per game, while Edmonton averaged 1.5 goals per game.
Toronto Maple Leafs Recent Scores
In the most recent Toronto Maple Leafs game, the Leafs defeated the Seattle Kraken 5-1 in Seattle on February 26th.
Edmonton Oilers Recent Scores
The Edmonton Oilers lost their last game 3-2 to the best team in hockey, the Boston Bruins, on February 27th in Edmonton.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers Betting Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ 37-15-8 record has Toronto ranked fourth overall in the NHL standings. They are having their best chance to win a Stanley Cup in decades.
However, Toronto’s record is only good enough for second in the Atlantic Division, and the Leafs will likely have to play the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Boston is the top-ranked team in the NHL and Tampa Bay is ranked fifth overall.
Toronto has been extremely active in the trade market recently and made three trades in rapid succession on Tuesday, hoping to build a roster that can actually win a playoff series and escape the Atlantic Division.
The Maple Leafs are riding a three-game winning streak and have won four of the last five games. Toronto has a 7-3 straight-up record in the last ten games while posting a 5-4-1 over/under record.
Toronto is 4-0 in the last four games in Edmonton, 6-1 in the last seven games against the Pacific Division, and 5-1 in the last six games against the Western Conference.
Toronto’s Impressive Offensive Ranking and Powerplay Conversion Rate in the NHL
Offensively, Toronto is ranked seventh in the NHL, averaging 3.45 goals per game, while having the fifth-ranked powerplay, converting at 25.3%.
Defensively, the Maple Leafs are ranked fourth, giving up 2.62 goals per game, and have the 11th-ranked penalty kill, operating at 81.5%.
Mitch Marner leads the Maple Leafs in scoring with 74 points (20 goals, 54 assists), while William Nylander leads the squad with 33 goals. Marner has nine points in the last five games, while Nylander has three goals in the same stretch.
We expect Iily Samsonov to get the start for the Maple Leafs on Wednesday night. Samsonov has a 22-7-2 record, a 2.30 GAA, and a .918 SV%.
Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers enter Wednesday night’s matchup with the Maple Leafs riding a two-game losing streak and having lost three of the last five. Edmonton has a 3-7 straight-up record in the last ten games (3-3-4). The Edmonton Oilers standings will be firmly in focus for the team and its fans as they currently hold a Western Conference Wild Card position and are ranked fourth in the Pacific Division with a 32-21-8 record.
The Oilers have a 7-3 over/under record in the last ten games, facing a total goals line of 7.0 in seven of those games. The over is 7-1 in Edmonton’s last eight games against the Atlantic division.
The Oilers are the best offensive team in the NHL, ranked first and averaging 3.80 goals per game, while having the league’s best powerplay, operating at 31.9%.
Edmonton Oilers Address Defense with the Acquisition of Mattias Ekholm
Edmonton has also made a few trades recently, adding defenseman Mattias Ekholm from the Nashville Predators. Ekholm should help an Oilers defense with terrible stats compared to the offense: the Oilers are ranked 20th and give up 3.28 goals per game while having the 25th-ranked penalty kill, operating at 75.6%.
Connor McDavid is the best player in the league and leads the Oilers in NHL player stats with 115 points (50 goals, 65 assists) in 61 games. No, we’re not making those stats up. McDavid has 14 points in the last five games.
Left-winger Evander Kane is listed as day-to-day and is the only notable Oilers player on the NHL injury report.
Stuart Skinner has started the last four games for the Oilers but is our expected starter against the Maple Leafs. Skinner has a 15-13-4 record, a 2.91 GAA, and a .912 SV%.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers Odds Breakdown
Before we make our Maple Leafs vs Oilers Score prediction, we need to review the NHL odds and both teams’ betting records.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are the moneyline favorite, listed between -125 and -134. The Edmonton Oilers are the underdog, listed from +105 to +112. Toronto has a 37-23 straight-up record, while Edmonton is 32-29 straight-up.
As the moneyline underdog, the Oilers are listed at +1.5 on the puck line spread, with odds ranging from -220 to -250. The Maple Leafs are listed at -1.5, with odds between +170 and +196. Toronto has a 27-33 ats record, while Edmonton is 32-29 ats.
The total goals line is set to 6.5, which is standard got most NHL games, although this might be a game where 7.0 is a more appropriate line. The over is listed with odds from -120 to -138, while the under is listed from +100 to +112. The Maple Leafs have a 26-31-3 over/under record, while the Oilers are the Kings of the Over in the NHL, posting a 39-18-4 over/under record.
Here are some betting trends to consider before we make our NHL picks and final Maple Leafs vs Oilers score prediction: the favorite is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings, while the road team is 10-4 in the last 14.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers Pick and Prediction
Our first pick: take the Maple Leafs and Oilers to hit the over. The Edmonton Oilers are involved in this game, and you have to lean toward the over in most Oilers’ games, while Toronto has one of the best offenses in the league, so they’ll likely do their part to hit the over. Take the over.
Our second pick: take the Toronto Maple Leafs to win on the moneyline. The Maple Leafs are the better team overall and should take advantage of Edmonton’s defense and outscore whatever the Oilers throw at them. Take the Maple Leafs on the moneyline.
Our final pick: take the Oilers +1.5. Why? The Oilers will keep this to a one-goal game, whether the final score is 4-3, 5-4, 6-5, or 21-20.
- Final Score Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs 4 – Edmonton Oilers 3
- Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs ML, Edmonton Oilers +1.5, Over
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