This is the first of two head-to-head matchups between these NHL teams this season, with both games being played one week apart. We’ll review the NHL standings, stats, trends, and NHL odds before making our Maple Leafs vs Blues Game prediction for Tuesday night’s 8:00 p.m. ET puck drop.
Matchup Preview
Game: Toronto Maple Leafs (21-7-6) vs. St. Louis Blues (16-16-2)
Where: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri
When: Tuesday, December 27th, 2022, 8 p.m. ET
Watch: NHL PP | ESPN+ | Regional Broadcast Partners
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. St. Louis Blues Odds Breakdown
The Toronto Maple Leafs are listed as the moneyline favorite, with odds ranging from -162 to -180. The St. Louis Blues are the underdog, with odds between +135 and +150, depending on your online sportsbook. The Maple Leafs have a 21-13 straight-up moneyline record, while the Blues have a 16-18 straight-up record in their nhl schedule.
St. Louis is listed at +1.5 on the puck line spread, with odds from -170 to -188. Toronto is listed at -1.5 on the puck line spread, with odds ranging between +138 and +150. The Blues have a 16-18 against the spread (ats) record, while the Maple Leafs have a 15-19 ats record.
The total goals line is primarily listed at 6.5, although some sportsbooks favor 6.0 goals. Using a total goals line of 6.5, the over has odds ranging from +105 to – 122, while the under is listed between +100 and -122. Toronto has a 12-20 over/under record, while St. Louis has a 21-11 over/under record.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. St. Louis Blues Betting Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs return from the Holiday break with a 21-7-6 record, ranked second in the Atlantic Division and fourth overall in the NHL standings. The Maple Leafs have won two-straight NHL games and three of the last five. Toronto has hit the over in three of the last five games, while four games ended in at least a 1.5-goal spread.
Toronto is 7-0 in the last seven games against Western Conference teams and 4-0 versus Central division competition, while the under is 4-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last five games against the central division.
The Maple Leafs are ranked 13th in the NHL, averaging 3.3 goals per game while giving up only 2.4 goals per game, ranking Toronto second in the NHL. Powered by Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and William Nylander, the Maple Leafs’ powerplay is ranked 10th in the NHL, operating a 23.9%. Toronto’s penalty killing is the only thing statistically average about the Maple Leafs, ranked 15th in the league and operating at 79.8%.
Mitchell Marner is the other key company to Toronto’s offensive success and remains the Maple Leafs’ leader in NHL player stats from his record-breaking points scoring streak with 40 points (13 goals, 27 assists).
Ilya Samsonov (10-3-0, 2.07 GAA, .924 SV%) and Matt Murray (8-2-2, 2.34 GAA, .925 SV%) have swapped starts for the previous eight games. If the Maple Leafs maintain the goaltending rotation from before the holiday break, then Matt Murray should be the starter against the Blues.
St. Louis Blues
The St. Louis Blues enter Tuesday night’s action with a 16-16-2 record, having lost the last two games. However, the Blues have won three of the last five games. Four of those five games have hit the over of 6.5 goals, while three games ended in at least a 1.5-goal spread.
Overall, the Blues are 1-5 in the last six games against Atlantic Division competition, while the over is 4-1-1 in the Blues’ last six games on a Tuesday and 3-1-2 in the last six games in St. Louis. These over/under trends will be factored into our Maple Leafs vs Blues game prediction. Potential good news for St. Louis fans or bettors: the underdog is 5-2 in the last seven matchups between Toronto and St. Louis.
St. Louis averages 3.0 goals per game, ranking the Blues 24th in the NHL. On the other hand, the Blues are giving up 3.6 goals per game, ranking 28th overall. St. Louis’ penalty kill is among the NHL’s worst, ranked 29th and operating at 70.7%, while the Blues powerplay is ranked a respectable 12th, operating at 23.4%.
As of publication, Blues leading scorer Jordan Kryou (16 goals, 16 assists) is the only notable name on the NHL injury report and is listed as out, according to ESPN.
Goaltending has been a major story for the St. Louis Blues this season. Jordan Binnington (12-11-2, 3.14 GAA, .896 SV%) has not been the Stanley Cup-winning goaltender the Blues expected to return this season, while his tantrums and outbursts have made as many highlight reels and social media posts as have his saves. Binnington and career-backup Thomas Greiss (4-5-0, 3.55 GAA, .903 SV%) have swapped the previous four games, although Binnington has started in five of the last seven games.
We expect Binnington to get the start against the Maple Leafs on Tuesday night.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. St. Louis Blues Pick and Prediction
The first of our NHL picks is to take the Toronto Maple Leafs on the moneyline. We’re not concerned that the underdog is 5-2 in the last seven games or that the Maple Leafs are 8-20 in the previous 28 games. The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the top four teams in the league and a legitimate contender to win the Stanley Cup. We’ll take Toronto to win as the moneyline favorite as one of our Maple Leafs vs Blues game prediction.
Our second pick is to take the over. Why? St. Louis’ goaltending is as much of a reason as goal scoring for why the Blues have hit the over as often as they have recently, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the more talented offensive teams in the NHL. This one should hit the over with something like a 5-2 or 6-3 score, although we favor a 5-2 final score because of the Maple Leafs’ excellent goaltending tandem.
This brings us to our final Maple Leafs vs Blues game prediction. We don’t like the Blues’ chances or recent performances to think they keep this one within one goal in the end. We’ll tank the Toronto Maple Leafs to cover the -1.5 goal spread and continue their impressive season chasing the Boston Bruins in the Atlantic division.
Final Score Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs 5 – St. Louis Blues 2
Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5, Maple Leafs moneyline, Over.
If you love sports and want more sports betting information follow us as @InsidersBetDig on Twitter and sign up to our mailing list for free betting picks.