Paris 2024 Soccer Gold Medal (W): Brazil vs USA Prediction

Brazil have won two straight games without Marta and as underdogs to reach their first Olympic gold medal match since 2008. After their impressive 4-2 win over Spain in the Semifinals, Brazil take on four-time gold medalists USA on Saturday.

Olympics . August 10th, 11:00 am ET | Parc des Princes, Paris, France

Brazil

VS

USA

Pick 1-1 Draw +600

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USA have been the tournament’s best defensive team, with just two goals conceded in five matches and none in their last four hours of play. Still, we think Brazil can defy the odds one more team and at least get on the scoresheet.

Our Women’s Olympic gold medal match betting prediction is a 1-1 draw in normal time, at +600 odds.

Brazil vs USA Recent Scores

Head-to-Head Record

Brazil vs USA Last Five Games

• March 10th, 2024: USA 1-0 Brazil (CONCACAF Gold Cup Final)
• February 22nd, 2023: USA 2-1 Brazil (SheBelieves Cup)
• February 21st, 2021: USA 2-0 Brazil (SheBelieves Cup)
• March 5th, 2019: USA 1-0 Brazil (SheBelieves Cup)
• August 2nd, 2018: USA 4-1 Brazil (Tournament of Nations) 

Brazil have won only three of their 40 matchups against the USA. Their most recent encounter was the CONCACAF Gold Cup Final in March, where the USWNT secured a 1-0 victory with a goal from Lindsey Horan.

The Americans are riding a nine-game unbeaten streak against Brazil. The last Brazilian win was at the 2014 Brasilia tournament. This gold medal match marks the third opportunity for Women’s Olympic gold medal match betting in this fixture. The USWNT emerged with gold in both previous contests (2004, 2008).

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Brazil vs USA Betting Preview

Brazil Preview

Shorthanded Brazil have played with intensity and resilience to reach their first Olympic gold medal match in 16 years. Brazil stunned 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup winners Spain in the Semis and grabbed a 4-2 victory.

At one point, Brazil were up 3-0 and Spain had no answers for Brazil’s long balls. Brazil won that match as +620 underdogs and defeated hosts France 1-0 in the Quarter-Finals, as +420 underdogs. Gabi Portilho has scored in both knockout games for Brazil.

Brazil will be even more dangerous with Marta back from a two-game suspension. However, Rafaelle Souza, Antonia, Tamires and Jhennifer are all dealing with injuries.

USA Preview

Three USA players (Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson and Sophia Smith) have scored three goals at the Olympics. Smith scored the only goal in Tuesday’s Semifinal against Germany and it took extra time to get a victory.

USA’s Quarter-Final match also went into extra time, as Rodman scored the winner. The USWNT have only conceded two goals in nine games under Emma Hayes and have kept three clean sheets in five games.

The under (3-1-1) has been one of the best women’s soccer bets today in USA games. Center back Naomi Girma has been one of the best players in the tournament, and Tierna Davidson is back from an injury.

USA are 4-1 in previous gold medal matches and are going for their first gold since 2012.

Brazil vs USA Odds Breakdown

HcpMLDraw MLTotal

+0.5 -120+370+205O2 -135

-0.5 -110-110–U2 +105

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HcpMLDraw MLTotal

+0.5 -115+372+207O2.25+109

-0.5 -105-105–U2.25 -129

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HcpMLDraw MLTotal

+0.5 -115+372+207O2.25+109

-0.5 -105-105–U2.25 -129

BET NOW

HcpMLDraw MLTotal

+0.5 -119+320+220O2.5 +130

-0.5 -106-104–U2.5 -167

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The soccer betting lines list USA as -110 favorites for this match but their last two games have gone into extra time. Meanwhile, Brazil are going for a third straight win as underdogs and show +372 moneyline odds.

A draw is at +220, while Brazil +0.5 is priced at -120. The over/under goal total is between 2 and 2.5.

Brazil vs USA Final Score Prediction

While USA have kept two straight clean sheets, their opponents have had their fair share of chances. Brazil managed to put four goals on Spain on Tuesday and we think they’ll be able to score here.

USA have looked tired in recent matches but they should also be able to break down a shorthanded Brazil defense. We’re taking a 1-1 draw at +600 Women’s Olympic gold medal match betting odds in a match that could go to penalties.