The aftermath of Joe Biden’s disastrous performance at the initial Presidential debate last week has sent betting markets into major flux.
Some Democrats have publicly lobbied for the 81-year-old incumbent to back out, but Biden announced Wednesday his intent to remain in the race at least for now.
There’s about a month until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and with that much time to drastically change the race, here’s a look at the U.S. politics odds post-debate update.
US Politics Pick
- Pick: Kamala Harris Democratic Presidential Nominee +120
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U.S. Politics Post-Debate Odds Analysis
Presumed Republican candidate Donald Trump was only a narrow favorite entering the first debate in Atlanta last week. But Biden’s listless performance sent shockwaves through the race and threw the odds into uncharted territory.
Biden is only a slight +110 favorite to represent the DNC as its presidential candidate, with Vice President Kamala Harris sitting narrowly behind him at +120. There is a field of other, long-shot candidates, including 44th First Lady Michelle Obama (+1100), California governor Gavin Newsom (+1100), and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer (+1100) long behind them.
Trump is a -300 favorite to win in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against Biden, who has +200 updated odds in the U.S. politics post-Presidential debate. Trump is still favored in a head-to-head matchup against Harris, though a slightly longer one at -225.
U.S. Politics Post-Debate Betting Trends
- An incumbent has won re-election in four of the past six Presidential elections dating back to 1984.
- Democrats have lost the popular vote in only one of the past eight Presidential elections.
- Republicans have won the election without winning the popular vote twice in the 2000s, including Trump’s win in 2016.
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U.S. Politics Post-Debate Betting Picks
Donald Trump Win 2024 Presidential Election (-170)
Trump may be problematic and a legitimate threat to democracy as America knows it. Plus, there’s ample time for things to drastically change — especially since Bovada had Trump as a -300 favorite to claim re-election on election night in 2020.
But if you are politics betting in the U.S., and given how Biden and Harris are perceived by undecided voters, and with Trump’s -300 and -225 odds to defeat each candidate, the -170 odds for Trump to claim the office is a huge market inefficiency.
The -170 odds give a 62.9% implied probability, far inferior to the 75% and 69% probabilities implied by the hypothetical head-to-head odds. These odds aren’t great since bettors will only win $0.58 profit per dollar bet, but that is substantially better than the $0.33 profit-per-dollar bet in the head-to-head between Trump and Biden and $0.44 profit-per-dollar wagered in Trump vs Harris.
Despite the fact Biden reaffirmed his commitment to running Wednesday, Biden still has -130 odds to drop out of the race in July which will necessitate another U.S. politics odds post-debate update.
Any potential decision will throw the Presidentia odds, further into flux.
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