Russian President Vladimir Putin probably didn’t see his invasion being such a war of attrition, and he likely didn’t expect it to go on for a year. Now the big question becomes “when does this end?” and we can see some answers based on oddsmakers releasing the Putin exit odds:
2022, +2000
There isn’t much time left in 2022, so Putin exiting Ukraine by the end of the year would be an abrupt surprise. These exits usually aren’t swift unless a treaty is signed, and Ukraine has said they demand that Putin leaves power. It doesn’t seem like that will happen with less than ten days left in the calendar year, which is why this is such a long shot.
2023, -125
The hardest thing about evaluating Putin’s exit odds is just how he’s going to do it, which is what makes the betting on politics guide very interesting. News on politics shows no stats, injuries, or trends – just trying to get in the heads of some often erratic individuals.
It’s obviously in the best interest of the entire globe if the Ukraine – Russia conflict ends peacefully. You don’t want to cash in on Putin leaving Ukraine in 2023 if he launched a bunch of nuclear weapons on his way out the door.
Putin didn’t expect the invasion of Ukraine to be this lengthy, but at the same time, he’s not doing himself any political favors by dragging this out for another two or three years. Russia has about four friends on the global stage, with only North Korea, Syria, Belarus, and Nicaragua voting against condemning Russia’s referendums on annexing parts of Ukraine.
Morale isn’t precisely high within the country, either. Hundreds, if not thousands, of men have refused to fight even after being drafted, with reports of up to 700,000 people fleeing the country after the mobilization orders.
With dissent coming from around the globe and within his borders, Putin would be wise to exit Ukraine in the next year – while it’s still his choice and not the result of a coup or NATO intervention.
2024, +300
There’s value in 2024 being the year Russia exits Ukraine from a sheer logistics standpoint. If a resolution is on the table, these types of discussions and confirmations take months to finalize. This is often referred to in the corporate world as “let’s meet to schedule a time that works to have a meeting.”
2024 could make sense for Putin’s exit odds if the withdrawal is amicable, but even more so if the exit is hostile. Putin still seems confident that Russia will prevail despite all the outside noise, and he seems like the type of guy that will go down fighting even if he is wrong.
Almost every political pundit would confirm that Putin doesn’t have an exit strategy and that he could go several ways in the next couple of years. The politics odds can be pretty unpredictable. The most likely route is to continue to fight, but former aides also say he could flee to Argentina or Venezuela in exile. Those optimistic about a 2023 end to this conflict should be prepared to hunker down for the long haul.
2026 or Later, +200
While it doesn’t seem like Ukraine – Russia conflict would extend until 2026, the +200 odds say that’s more likely than we think. It’s scary to think how many trillions of dollars the United States would have given Ukraine by then. Still, there’s also an American presidential election in 2024, which will be a big talking point.
If this war goes on until 2026, it’s almost guaranteed that some outside parties will get involved by then. You don’t want to give Russia three more years to build up and fine-tune its nuclear arsenal, so if 2026 or later is your wager, it might not be a bad bet to lose.
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