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Will History Repeat Itself in the 2024 Presidential Elections with Trump vs. Biden?

On November 5, 2024, the U.S. will have another presidential election process. In January 2023, a new Congress began, with a House of Representatives with a slim Republican majority and a Senate again controlled by the Democrats. In other words, the political spectacle is expected to unravel gradually. 

Although he still has another stretch, Donald Trump has already announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential race. This is all amid the discontent over the poor performance of the candidates he supported in the midterms, various investigations against him, and internal conflicts between the different powers within the party. 

On the blue side, the Democratic leadership was renewed at the end of November, but Joe Biden has not yet announced his re-election bid. However, he has indicated on several occasions that he will make a final decision that he will share at the beginning of the year. So it seems the U.S. is now set for another Trump vs. Biden race.

The Republican Take on Trump 

An economic survey from late November indicated that voters want neither Trump nor Biden in the 2024 presidential race. According to the survey, 61% of those polled believed that Trump should not seek the presidency, compared to 30% who think the All-American business tycoon should run again. 

Another Marquette University poll, reviewed by various news sources, indicated that 63% of voters would rather see Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the Republican Party’s pick than Trump, who only received 36% support. 

Ron DeSantis

DeSantis has positioned himself as one of the strongest candidates to face Trump in a presidential primary. The governor won re-election in Florida, has expanded his influence beyond the state, and raised more than $100 million from small donors, attracting even former Trump donors. 

Yet DeSantis has made no announcement and has consistently dodged the question of presidential aspirations. On the other hand, there have been signs that his relationship with Trump is strained, including the fact that the governor refused to ask for the former president’s support in the 2022 midterms.

Polls indicate that Trump and DeSantis are well ahead of others in the potential field for the 2024 Republican nomination. But third place could go to Texas senator Ted Cruz, who was Trump’s most legitimate rival back in 2016. Still, the politics odds for a Trump vs. Biden election are pretty high. 

Other possible Republican candidates include Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, Texas Governor Gregg Abbott, and Fox News Channel’s Tucker Carlson.

The Democrats Take on Biden 

The Trump vs Biden odds show that If Biden were to decide not to run for re-election, there are several Democrats who are expected to seek a path to the White House. But even Democrats privately acknowledge that Vice President Kamala Harris is not seen as the ultimate frontrunner in such a situation. 

In a similar economic survey, 70% say Biden should not run for a second term, and only 19% support a nomination. In October, an American media poll found that, among Hispanic Democrats, Biden would get 36% in the 2024 Democratic primary, followed far behind by Michelle Obama with 14%, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 10%, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 9%. 

Despite having faced ups and downs throughout the administration, Vice President Kamala Harris remains a possibility for 2024. Harris has made women’s rights a critical issue during her term as Vice President, which can help her secure a Democratic base. 

New Women Frontrunners Emerging in Politics

Another likely alternative after Buttigieg and Harris are two women; newly re-elected Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who came very close to being Biden’s vice-presidential pick; and Senator Elizabeth Warren. 

Warren has made it clear that she is seeking re-election in Michigan, but Democrats also say there would be a place for her if Biden decides not to run again. However, she usually responds with dismissiveness when asked about the presidential race. 

Other names various sources have mentioned are Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Governor Gavin Newsom. Still, in an interview with other sources in late November, the governor said he does not plan to run in the 2024 presidential race, even if Biden withdraws. 

Potential Biden vs. Trump 2024 Odds

While it’s unclear how the road to the 2024 elections might turn out, one factor is vital. Currently, the odds favor another Trump vs Biden presidential rundown. Joe Biden now leads the race as the potential democratic candidate with -175 odds, while Trump leads on the Republican side with +125 odds.

While the picture is still uncertain, there is no question that one very high potential scenario that Americans might see in the next year is a second race between the old rivals. At least, that’s what the current odds look like for those interested in placing a bet on politics.

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