Aside from Penrith, the Brisbane Broncos are the hottest team in the NRL, with a seven-match winning streak. That will be put to the test incredibly, though, when they visit the Melbourne Storm on Friday as part of round 16 actions. Check the Storm vs. Broncos Betting Analysis below.
Brisbane hasn’t lost since their defeat to the top-seeded Panthers on April 15th. The Storm have learned to play through injuries, though, and have rattled off two wins in a row, keeping their hold on the #2 spot in the ladder at 10-3. The Broncos’ strong play as of late has them at 9-4 ahead of what should be a very good rugby betting matchup.
Last Game Records
The Storm got a good draw on the schedule in having their bye during Origin week, and they bounced back after the weekend off with a 26-18 win vs. Sydney last Saturday. Melbourne seems to have put the losses to Penrith and North Queensland in consecutive weeks in the rear view as they have now won two in a row.
Brisbane was able to push their winning streak to seven games with their 24-18 win over the Raiders last weekend. We will see if the Broncos are for real in Friday’s rugby betting predictions, as five of their seven wins during this stretch have come against teams in the bottom half of the ladder.
Storm vs. Broncos Betting Analysis
Despite the Broncos’ recent success, Melbourne is a -15.5 favorite in this weekend’s rugby betting odds. It seems oddsmakers are downplaying Brisbane’s strength of schedule recently as their last two wins have come against bottom-six teams, and both were at home.
There is also the fact that Melbourne has largely dominated the head-to-head series, winning 36 of the 50 career meetings also with one draw. The Storm are one of the more popular rugby betting picks for this week, considering they are on a 10-game win streak against the Broncos.
Brisbane does have momentum, though, with their current stretch of success, but they have also beaten the Storm a mere two times in the last 12 years. Both of those victories were in Melbourne, so maybe the Broncos have some value as +440 underdogs?
Papenhuyzen Returning Soon
Melbourne picked up a big win in Sydney last weekend against a Roosters team vying to get into the top eight. That being said, the Storm still doesn’t quite look like the offense they were when Ryan Papenhuyzen was in the lineup.
Melbourne scored 42+ points in the previous three games before Papenhuyzen suffered his leg injuries, including 50 against the Knights and 70 against the Warriors. In the four games since Papenhuyzen got hurt, they have put up 6, 6, 28, and 26 points.
Papenhuyzen was set to return this week, but a positive COVID test has him sidelined at least one more round. He had four tries and five goals in last year’s 40-6 win over Brisbane, so his absence is still going to be felt for sure.
Brisbane Tired of Being Dominated
The Broncos were beaten up by the Storm to a total margin of 80-18 in 2021. That’s four consecutive head-to-head meetings that Melbourne has hung 40+ on Brisbane. This is not the same Broncos team, though, as they have ten total wins the last two seasons and have already tallied nine in 2022.
Brisbane is dealing with a bit of their own for Friday’s rugby betting picks as skipper Adam Reynolds suffered a rib injury last weekend and will be sidelined. Reynolds is 9th in the NRL with 80 points; The Broncos have four other players in the top 30 in scoring, though, so at least they have depth.
Updates
Ryan Papenhuyzen, fullback for the Storm, will not play due to a hamstring injury along with testing positive for COVID. Adam Reynolds for the Broncos will miss the game due to a rib injury.
Storm vs. Broncos Betting Preview
The -15.5 points rugby betting odds are interesting. On the one hand, the Storm have dominated the last four head-to-head meetings, with the low margin of victory being 28 points. On the other hand, the Broncos seem much improved this season and have the momentum of a seven-match win streak.
Storm vs. Broncos Betting Prediction
The Storm just don’t look like the same team without Papenhuyzen, who still leads the NRL in scoring despite playing four or five games less than the other players near him in the stats. Melbourne will almost undoubtedly get the win at -625 on the moneyline in the rugby betting picks, but how close will this one be?
How to bet on Storm vs. Broncos
Getting dominated in the last four matchups has to wear on Brisbane a bit. They are a deep team that will come out with resilience on Friday – still losing but putting up a solid effort.
Take Brisbane +15.5
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