It’s round 10 of the NRL season, which means it’s Magic Round time. By far, the most anticipated matchup of this weekend’s slate is the pairing of the top two teams in the league when the Melbourne Storm and the Penrith Panthers meet up in the Saturday premiere. Let’s check in the Rugby picks the Storm vs Panthers Stats.
Both teams have some concerns despite being tied atop the NRL ladder. For Melbourne, it’s a big one as the league’s leading scorer Ryan Papenhuyzen will be sidelined up to six weeks with a hamstring tear and PCL injury. The depth of the Storm will be tested immediately.
Penrith’s issues aren’t as bad as dealing with the loss of arguably the best player in the NRL, but they still have some doubts after last week’s 22-20 upset loss to Parramatta. We will see which team adjusts better.
Storm vs Panthers Stats
Melbourne has the top offense in the NRL, but how much will that be affected by the loss of Papenhuyzen? Penrith is the second highest-scoring team in the league, but the margin between the two is still pretty significant.
Melbourne has 335 points on the year compared to 258 for Penrith. The Storm have 59 tries and 49 goals, while those numbers are 43 and 39 for the Panthers, respectively. Melbourne has scored 162 points – in the last three weeks alone.
Storm Stats
To say that the loss of Papenhuyzen is a significant blow to Melbourne is the understatement of the year. He has been the most dominant force in the NRL this season, leading the league in scoring with 127 points – which is 40 more than Valentine Holmes of the Cowboys, who is 2nd. Papenhuyzen also has 39 goals and 12 tries which both lead the league.
What’s unfortunate for Craig Bellamy’s squad is that Papenhuyzen isn’t the only significant injury they have to deal with moving forward, as centre Reimis Smith suffered a torn pectoral last week and is looking at a 10-12 week recovery time. Some fans are arguing that Papenhuyzen shouldn’t have been in the game in the 2nd half in last week’s 42-6 win over the Dragons after hurting his knee in the 1st, but Smith’s injury came early and looks unavoidable.
While the Storm will definitely be shorthanded moving forward, they still have Xavier Coates (40 points), Nick Meaney (30), and Jahrome Hughes (28), who can pick up some of the scoring slack. It wasn’t Papenhuyzen or Smith alone that has led Melbourne to 70, 50, and 42 points in the last three weeks.
Panthers Stats
Penrith missed out on a great chance of coming into this game 9-0 after their 22-20 loss to Parramatta last round. The Eels are a solid 6-3 team, though, and it’s obvious that the Panthers got caught looking ahead to the Magic Round a bit. Interestingly enough, Melbourne’s only loss this season also came to Parramatta.
This Saturday is rebound time for Penrith, though, and the defending Grand National Champions can show that they are still the cream of the NRL crop even though many people had already crowned Melbourne.
One big matchup to watch this week is at the halfback spot, where Nathan Cleary has returned to score 56 points in six games for Penrith after being out the first three rounds. Hughes is going to get more play for Melbourne with Papenhuyzen out, and he is a perfect fit for this big game spotlight.
Storm vs Panthers Betting Trends
- Melbourne is averaging 37 ppg
- Penrith is averaging 28 ppg
Storm vs Panthers Betting Picks
One could instantly give this contest to the Panthers due to Papenhuyzen’s injury, but that might be a bit premature. The Storm have great depth and not to mention an elite defense that has yielded a total of 18 points in the last three rounds.
Even so, Penrith is the defending Grand National Champion and are the healthier of the two teams. The 22-20 loss to Parramatta last weekend is a bit concerning, but at the same time, the Eels have proven to be giant slayers this season.
The Rugby odds have Penrith as -148 favorites, a number that has clearly taken the losses of Papenhuyzen and Smith into account. Melbourne has some pretty solid value as +120 underdogs as they have to be playing with a chip on their shoulder with everybody calling them a one-man team this week.
Conclusion
The Storm defense is for real, and this game will be close even without Papenhuyzen. Hughes, Meaney, and others in the Storm depth chart can pick up at least some of that scoring slack that is out of the lineup. Have to take Melbourne +2.5 in that situation.
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