Melbourne Storm players will be licking their lips at the prospect of getting stuck into the sorry New Zealand Warriors for the second time this season.
One team, the Storm, has their eye on a Top Two finish and a week off ahead of finals footy; the other, the New Zealand Warriors, are looking to avoid the wooden spoon.
Can New Zealand’s only league team in this Aussie-dominated competition play for pride and cause an upset here, or will we see a lopsided scoreline yet again?
Check out our New Zealand Warriors vs. Melbourne Storm Betting Analysis, along with some rugby picks below.
NRL Score Record
To say these teams have had contrasting fortunes this season would be an understatement. The Melbourne Storm sit in 5th place on the NRL ladder with 24 points, 12 points behind leaders Penrith Panthers but only four points off second-placed North Queensland Cowboys.
With 11 wins from 18 games, the Storm went on one of the NRL’s hottest streaks mid-season, stringing together six wins where the team from Melbourne scored an average of 45 points per game.
Now they’ve cooled off slightly, having lost their last four in a row, going down to the Rabbitohs 24-12 last week and the Raiders the week before that.
The 13th for the Warriors
The Warriors, on the other hand, languish in 13th place, ahead of only three other teams and fighting to avoid the wooden spoon.
With two wins from their last 13 games, there’s not a lot going for the Kiwi side after a decent start to this season’s rugby schedule.
They’ve lost their last two matches, relatively close defeats to the Raiders and Eels. The Melbourne Storm and New Zealand Warriors last met in April 2022, where Melbourne put the Warriors to the sword 70-10.
Though the Warriors have enjoyed upsetting the Storm in the past, stunning them in the 2008 and 2011 finals, those days are long gone, with the Storm on an 11-match winning streak over the Kiwi side. Their encounters last year both ended up in heavy score lines for Melbourne, 46-12 and 42-20.
Warriors vs. Storm Betting Analysis
Though the chances of this matchup being a close one are slim, expect the Warriors to come out swinging, given they have nothing to lose in this one.
Warriors Changes
The Warriors have brought about several changes to their squad following last week’s loss to the Raiders. Chanel Harris-Tavita is back to five-eighth, while Reece Walsh slots into fullback, and Daejarn Asi comes on to the bench.
A thigh strain to Jesse Arthars means that Marcelo Montoya comes into centre, and Edward Kosi starts on the wing.
In the forwards, the only change is Josh Curren entering the second row.
Storm Lineup Changes
For the Storm, you may expect changes to the lineup, given they are on a four-game losing streak; however, this does not appear to be the case.
Melbourne fronts up with the same run on 13 as last week, with the only change coming in the interchange bench, where Jordan Grant slots in for Tom Eisenhuth.
New Zealand Warriors vs. Melbourne Storm Betting Preview
It’s no surprise that the Melbourne Storm are heavily favored in the rugby odds to win this match.
The Storm are paying 1.23, which represents an 81% chance of winning the match, while the Warriors are all the way at 3.95, with the bookies giving them a 25% chance of coming away as victors.
Given that it’s been over six years and 11 matches since the Warriors last defeated the Storm, and their last margin was 60 points… a 25% chance seems generous.
New Zealand Warriors vs. Melbourne Storm Betting Prediction
Expect New Zealand to put up an initial fight but ultimately give way to what is a superior side. Melbourne will be desperate to stem their four-game losing streak, particularly since their run into the finals isn’t easy.
Who to Bet On?
They still have a chance of finishing Top Two on the NRL ladder this year; however, with four of their remaining five games against Top Eight sides.
They will need to put this game in the bag to have any shot of that aspiration being a reality. If you are going to be betting on rugby, take the Storm by 15 points here.
NRL Pick: Storm 15
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