It’s first against worst in the NRL round 13 rugby betting slate as the Penrith Panthers (11-1) look to continue to add some padding atop the ladder when they host the Canterbury Bulldogs (2-10). Since it’s Origin weekend Penrith will be short 6 players, but it’s almost the perfect opponent draw for this situation.
Canterbury is unaffected by Origin weekend, but it begs the question if Penrith’s reserves are still better than the Bulldogs’ starters for this weekend’s rugby predictions? Either way, there’s no better opportunity for Canterbury to snap a four game losing streak in the head-to-head series than when Penrith is a bit shorthanded.
Last Game Records
Penrith seems in line for a second straight premiership win, especially after dispelling arguably their two biggest competitors over the past two rounds. The Panthers dominated an injury riddled Melbourne team 32-6 in the Magic Round and then beat up on one of the best defenses in the league in a 22-0 win over North Queensland last weekend.
The struggles continue for the last place Bulldogs, who fell to 2-10 after last weekend’s 36-22 defeat against Wests Tigers. That’s three defeats in a row for Canterbury, who somehow was able to pull out a 16-12 win against Sydney on April 30th to stop a six game slide. This is a team to usually bet against regardless of the rugby betting odds.
Panthers vs Bulldogs Betting Analysis
Penrith has been a solid team to wager on all season long, but things get a bit interesting during country of Origin weekend. The Panthers are only -9.5 favorites for this matchup, a line that seems incredibly low in a 1st place vs. last place matchup – but once again the absences are a big reason why.
Even the moneyline of -340 seems to have great value on Penrith and Canterbury at +265 just seems like a waste of a wager. Then again if the Panthers were ever ripe for an upset it would be now – missing 6 players for Origin weekend and having played 2nd place Melbourne and 3rd place North Queensland in the last two weekends’ rugby picks.
There is also a history to consider in this matchup as well, with Penrith holding a four game win streak in the head to head series. During that span the Panthers hold a 132-16 scoring margin so these games have rarely been close.
Step Up Time for Reserves
Penrith was hit with some huge Origin duties, most notably Nathan Cleary but also Jarome Laui, Brian To’o, Stephen Crichton, Liam Martin, Isaiah Yeo. Cleary is 5th in the NRL in points (84), and 3rd in goals (40) despite missing the first three games of the season.
Obviously every loss the Panthers have to deal with this weekend is a big one – it’s why the players were selected in the first place. Crichton has 60 points on the year and Laui puts a ton of pressure on opposing defenses.
Do we take all stats out of account with Penrith missing so many key players this weekend or is the system still intact? The Panthers rank 2nd in points, tries, and goals in the NRL – trailing Melbourne in all three categories.
Bulldogs at Full Strength
Canterbury will have a full arsenal at their disposal in this game but will it be enough? The Bulldogs won their first game of the season in a hard fought 6-4 win over what ended up being a good North Queensland team, but Canterbury is just 1-10 since then.
Canterbury’s stretch of poor play includes a 32-12 home loss to Penrith in round five. That defeat on April 10th was the fourth straight for the Bulldogs in the series, setting an all-time high for losing streaks in the head to head matchup. Canterbury has been shut out twice during this recent slide and the 20-point loss in April was the closest game over that span.
PPanthers vs Bulldogs Betting Preview
Everything changes for this matchup because of Origin weekend. If the Panthers had their full arsenal of players available they’d probably be at least 15 point favorites, but without the likes of Cleary and others the line is down to -9.5. That’s either a steal – or a trap.
Panthers vs Bulldogs Betting Prediction
Ultimately Penrith is still at home in this spot, and with some absences it provides a great opportunity for the Panthers to find some depth. Once again, Penrith’s reserves likely still outclass the Bulldogs’ first string.
How to bet on Panthers vs Bulldogs
Take Penrith -9.5
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