The premier matchup of NRL round 12 action sees the ladder leading Penrith Panthers (10-1) hosting the third-place North Queensland Cowboys (8-3). While Penrith looks to be the best team in the league and on pace to repeat last year’s Grand Final win, the Cowboys are red hot with six straight wins.
Continue reading for more rugby betting predictions and rugby betting picks.
Last Game Records
The Panthers could have been in a letdown spot last weekend following their 32-6 demolition of Melbourne in the Magic Round, but it was business as usual for Penrith with a 32-12 thrashing of the Roosters.
That’s now two wins in a row since the Panthers’ only loss of the season, a surprise 22-20 upset at home by Parramatta.
North Queensland did their part to continue to add to Melbourne’s misery, beating them up badly, 36-6, last Saturday. The Cowboys continue to rebound from their 2-3 start as they have rattled off six straight wins.
Melbourne has already picked up a win in Round 12 over Manly, so North Queensland needs this victory to avoid dropping into third-place behind the 9-3 Storm.
Panthers vs Cowboys Betting Analysis
Penrith is a whopping -15.5 favorite in this matchup of the top three teams on the ladder. That may seem on the high side with the way North Queensland has been ripping off victories, but at the same time, the Panthers have been dominating pretty much everybody that has been put in their path save for the one slip up vs. the Eels.
Five of Penrith’s last six wins have come by at least 20 points, although it could be argued that none of those competitors were the quality of the Cowboys. Even Melbourne was without NRL leading scorer Ryan Papenhuyzen as well as Reimis Smith and Jahrome Hughes in the Magic Round matchup.
The Panthers have been able to avoid the injury bug, for the most part, something that is not easy to do as the season wears on. Penrith will start the same 13 for the fourth straight game while North Queensland will have to make adjustments with Jason Taumalolo and Kyle Feldt, both sidelined with knee injuries.
Penrith Looks Tops
The Panthers’ slip up in round 9 against Parramatta could be attributed to looking ahead to the Magic Round matchup with Melbourne, as both squads were on a collision course. Penrith avoided that same fate last week in the sandwich game between the Storm and North Queensland, beating Sydney by 20 on the road.
Things get pretty easy for Penrith the next couple of weeks after Friday’s matchup. The Panthers play the Bulldogs, Knights, and Warriors – three of the five worst teams in the NRL – before a bye week.
With some easy competition coming up, expect Penrith to add to their 322 points and 53 tries which are both second to Melbourne in the league. The Panthers are tied with Melbourne with 51 goals, while Nathan Cleary ranks 5th in individual points (80) despite missing three games.
Big Test for North Queensland Defense
The Cowboys are on one right now with a six-game win streak for the first time since 2015. North Queensland has dispelled the notion that you need a strong end of the season to build for the next since they were just 1-11 over the final 12 of 2021.
A much-improved defense has been a major component in North Queensland’s surprising turnaround. This is a team that allowed 31 points per game last season but has that down to 12 per in 2022. That defense has been especially impressive during the win streak, with a 36-16 victory over the Knights in round 10 being the most points allowed during their stretch.
Despite having a solid defense, make no mistake, the Cowboys can back things up on offense as well. They are 3rd in the NRL in completion rate at 80%, just a percentage point behind Penrith. Valentine Holmes leads the league with 45 goals and is second to Papenhuyzen with 107 points.
Panthers vs Cowboys Betting Preview
Penrith has been very kind to bettors recently, with five of their last six wins being by 20 points or more. The Panthers have shown they are human, though with the loss to Parramatta, who was also at home.
North Queensland is an entirely different team than their 7-17 performance a season ago, so it’s hard to grade Penrith’s 24-0 win in their only 2021 meeting. The Panthers swept two matchups in 2020 by an average margin of 16 points, but once again, this is a different Cowboys squad.
Panthers vs Cowboys Betting Prediction
Rugby betting odds are pretty much giving this win to Penrith as -530 moneyline favorites, but is the -15.5 point spread too much? The Cowboys’ defense has looked great over their win streak, while Holmes and the offense could keep this game relatively close, one would think for rugby betting.
How to bet on Panthers vs Cowboys
Take North Queensland (+15.5)
If you love sports and want more sports betting information follow us as @InsidersBetDig on Twitter and sign up to our mailing list for free betting picks.