As we enter round four, Italy and Wales are both ranked in the top-15 international rugby sides. Still, neither nation has scored a win in the first three fixtures of the 2023 Six Nations Cup.
Both sides are coming off tough losses to two of the top six-ranked rugby nations in the world. They will want to earn their first wins, and points, in the 2023 Six Nations Cup in a matchup between evenly ranked and matched sides.
There are only two rounds of the 2023 Six Nations remaining. Saturday’s matchup is Italy and Wales best chance to score a win this year. With both sides looking for their first win in the 2023 Six Nations Cup, we’ll break down this matchup and find the best bets for our rugby Italy vs Wales prediction.
Italy vs. Wales Information
Rugby 6 Nations: Italy vs. Wales
Location: Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Italy.
Date and Time: Saturday, March 11th, 2023, 9:15 AM ET.
How to Watch: YouTube
Italy vs. Wales Recent Scores
In the third round of the Six Nations Cup, Italy faced Ireland, the presently number-one-ranked international rugby side. Italy lost that matchup to Ireland 34-20 on February 25th.
Wales faced the sixth-ranked England squad in round three, losing 20-10 on February 25th.
Italy vs. Wales Betting Analysis
This is the first time in the Six Nations competition that either side has faced competition that is not ranked in the top-6 internationally. However, neither Wales nor Italy are push-overs. The Welsh side is ranked tenth in the world and the Italians ranked 13th.
Both Wales and Italy are winless in the 2023 Six Nations Cup, sitting at the bottom of the table winless so far. Italy sits fifth in the Six Nations table, having a better points differential than Wales and scoring a losing bonus point in their 29-23 loss to France, the second-ranked international rugby side.
Italy Facts to Know
The 13th-ranked rugby nation, Italy is averaging 19.3 points per game while giving up 31 points in Six Nations Competition.
The Italian side is currently at a -36 point differential over three rounds.
The Italians will need to want to improve their ratio of tries for and against, having six tries for but giving up 14 tries in Six Nations competition.
Wales Facts to Know
Wales might be ranked tenth in the world in International Rugby, but sits at the bottom of the 2023 Six Nations table and has not had a very good competition so far.
The Welsh side has only scored 27 total points, averaging 9.0 points per game. Wales has only scored three tries in their three Six Nations Cup matches but have given up 12 tries.
While back-to-back blowout losses to Ireland and England help skew their stats, Wales is giving up an average of 29.7 points per game in the Six Nations, giving Wales a -62 points differential so far.
Updates
Neither side has finalized or published its rosters for Saturday’s game, adding more difficulty when trying to make expert rugby betting predictions.
With no rosters as of publication, there are no injuries or omissions to report.
Italy vs. Wales Betting Preview
Before making our final rugby Italy vs Wales prediction, we need to search for rugby betting odds.
Wales enters Saturday’s matchup as the slight moneyline favorite, listed at -125. Italy is the underdog and is listed at -115.
No total points betting lines were available to include in our national rugby league predictions.
However, we do have rugby betting odds on the point spread to consider. As the moneyline underdog, Italy is listed at +1.5 points, with -120 odds. Wales is listed at -1.5 points, with the same -120 odds.
Italy vs. Wales Betting Prediction
We need to turn our rugby Italy vs Wales prediction into a couple of betting picks.
Pick 1: Our first pick is to take Italy as the underdog to win on the moneyline on Saturday. The Italians might be lower ranked internationally, but they have been the better and more offensively productive side throughout the 2023 Six Nations Cup.
Pick 2: Our second pick necessarily follows the first pick from our rugby Italy vs Wales prediction: take Italy to cover the spread of +1.5 points. Italy will have to cover the spread to win the matchup, so we’re taking Italy +1.5 and parlaying that with an Italian win, expecting the Italians to jump up the international rankings with a win.
- Six Nations Rugby Picks: Italy ML, Italy +1.5
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