It all comes down to the last game of the Octagonal for the United States and Costa Rica, with both teams still alive to directly qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
After Sunday’s results with both teams winning, they enter the final game knowing they are in the top four in CONCACAF. The fourth-place team will face a June playoff against the Oceanic champion, while the top three from CONCACAF will be in Friday’s group stage draw for the World Cup.
Heading into the final game, the United States sit in second place in CONCACAF with 25 points and a +13 goal differential. Mexico also has 25 points with a +7 goal differential while Canada has qualified and Costa Rica sit in fourth place on 22 points.
To make the top three, Costa Rica must beat the US by five goals or have Mexico lose to El Salvador while also making up that goal differential. The US will finish top three with a win, a draw, or any loss by less than five goals.
Last game records
The USA routed Panama 5-1 on Sunday with a hat trick from Christian Pulisic and a dominating performance on home soil. They also drew 0-0 at Mexico in this window to set the stage for qualification.
Costa Rica went on the road Sunday and beat El Salvador 2-1. Anthony Contreras scored the opener while Joel Campbell made it 2-1 just before halftime. In the first game of this window, Costa Rica leapt over Panama in the standings with a 1-0 win over 10-men Canada as Celso Borges scored in the first half.
These teams met in October in this qualifying round, with the US winning 2-1 in Columbus, Ohio. Costa Rica scored in the opening minute, but Serginho Dest tied the game in the first half and an own goal in the 66th minute gave the hosts the victory.
The US has never won a World Cup Qualifier in Costa Rica. They lost 4-0 in Costa Rica in the 2018 qualification and 3-1 in the build-up for the 2014 World Cup. Overall the USA is 19-16 with five draws against Costa Rica since 1975 but 0-10 with one draw in qualifiers, being outscored 24-7.
Matchup Information
- Wednesday, March 29. 9:00 p.m. ET, Paramount+
- Estadio Nacional
- San Jose, Costa Rica.
United States vs Costa Rica Betting Analysis
Costa Rica
Costa Rica has made four of the last five World Cups, with the 2010 event coming as the exception. They reached the quarterfinals in 2014, topping a group that included Italy and England before beating Greece in the round of 16 and falling to the Netherlands on penalties.
The Ticos don’t rely on one goal scorer as eight different players have found the back of the net during qualification. Borges, Campbell, and Bryan Ruiz all have two goals each, and Borges also has two assists. Ruiz has 29 career goals for Costa Rica, while Borges has 25 and Campbell has 22.
Costa Rica has one of the best goalkeepers in the world in Keylor Navas. The PSG keeper just hit his 100th cap at the end of 2021 and looks to return to the international stage. He made three saves last week against Canada and one on Sunday against El Salvador.
In the win over El Salvador, they started Contreras and Campbell up top with Alonso Martinez. Borges, Bryan Oviedo, and Yeltsin Tejada were in midfield with Keysher Fuller, Juan Pablo Vargas, Francisco Calvo, and Kendall Watson in defense. Carlos Martinez Castro, Ian Lawrence, Ruiz, Johan Venegas, and Orlando Galo were used as substitutes.
United States
The big win over Panama did everything but officially clinch a World Cup berth for Gregg Berhalter and the United States. It would take a massive disaster in Costa Rica to miss out now, but with the nightmares of the 2018 qualification in Trinidad & Tobago still in their minds, nothing is set until the final whistle.
Pulisic converted two first-half penalty kicks against Panama and completed his first US hat trick in the 65th minute. He now has 21 career goals, seventh in USMNT history. Paul Arriola and Jesus Ferreira also found the back of the net, and only an 86th-minute consolation kept Zach Steffen and the defense from a clean sheet.
Playing without Timothy Weah and DeAndre Yedlin through yellow card suspension, the Americans controlled the possession on Sunday and also got some rest for others. Ricardo Pepi, who started on Thursday in Mexico, was unused, as was Jordan Pefok, who came off the bench in the first game of the window. Gianluca Busio and Shaq Moore played for the first time in this window, while Arriola and Luca de la Torre started instead of Kellyn Acosta and Weah.
The story of the night were the goals. Scoring early and often in the first half gave the US confidence going forward, and Pulisic put in a huge 70 minutes of work rate while also dazzling on the ball. The goals also gave Berhalter’s squad a cushion as they extended the goal differential over Mexico and Costa Rica.
The defense should be set for Wednesday with Yedlin back to go with Miles Robinson, Jedi Robinson, and Walker Zimmerman. Berhalter could stick with the midfield that worked against Panama or go back to Weah and Acosta. Ferreira and Arriola likely earned another start in attack with Pulisic but expect Gio Reyna and Pepi to get involved in Costa Rica.
Updates
The US have been hurt by injuries for this match, with usual starters Weston McKennie, Matt Turner, and Sergino Dest are all out, as is Brenden Aaronson. Reggie Cannon is out with COVID-19, but Yedlin and Weah both return from yellow card suspension.
Costa Rica does not have any yellow card suspensions of note for this match. They appeared to get out of Thursday’s game against El Salvador relatively healthy.
- The US has never won a qualifier in Costa Rica
- The US has two goals total in their last five WCQ in Costa Rica
- Costa Rica has allowed a goal in just one of the last five qualifiers
- The US has been shutout in four of six road qualifiers
- Costa Rica have allowed just eight goals in the 13 qualifying games
- Costa Rica is 4-1-1 at home in qualification
United States vs Costa Rica Betting Preview
With the five goals on Sunday, the USA have scored 21 goals in qualification to just 11 for Costa Rica. Both teams have given up eight as the USA have more firepower, but that hasn’t translated on the road.
The two biggest advantages for Costa Rica in this game are the home-field advantage and their desperation. They know they must attack for all 90 minutes as they have no choice but to attempt to make up the five-goal differential needed to advance and avoid the June playoff.
On the other side, the US knows they can sit back and be patient while also taking advantage of the counterattack opportunities. The midfield will be key as they need to keep possession and string together passes like they did against Panama.
United States vs Costa Rica Betting Prediction
Looking at the sports betting guides for the FIFA World Cup Qualifiers predictions, the USA is +140 to win the game on Wednesday while Costa Rica is +200. A draw is +210
Over 2.5 goals is +165 and under 2.5 goals is -215. Both teams to score is +115
How to bet on United States vs Costa Rica
Given that Costa Rica must go for at least five goals and this game will be opened up, look for multiple goals and both teams to score.
Final. United States 2, Costa Rica 2. Take the over 2.5 goals
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