Overview
It is time for FIFA world cup qualifiers predictions. There’s no doubt that Path C of the UEFA World Cup Qualifying playoffs is the toughest, with three top 40 teams in the latest FIFA World Rankings and two top 10 teams.
Only one of the four can qualify for Qatar, and this week Portugal host Turkey in one of the two Path C semifinals. The winner will host either Italy or North Macedonia next week.
Turkey has not qualified for a FIFA World Cup since they finished third in the 2002 World Cup in South Korea/Japan. Portugal have been to five straight World Cups but have just a fourth-place finish in 2006 to show for their efforts. They disappointed in 2014, eliminated in the group stage, and followed up their Euro 2016 title with a round of 16 exit at the 2018 World Cup.
Last games records
These teams haven’t met since 2012 when they played in Lisbon, Portugal, in a friendly. Turkey won that game 3-1 in a warm-up for Euro 2012. The last time they met in a competitive game was at Euro 2008 in Switzerland, a 2-0 Portugal win in the group stage. All-time Portugal leads the series 6-2.
Matchup Information
- Thursday, March 24. 2:45 p.m. ET
- Porto, Portugal
- Estadio do Dragao
Portugal vs Turkey Betting Analysis
Portugal Betting Analysis
As usual with Portugal, it comes down to the attack, led by legend Cristiano Ronaldo. The veteran slumped a bit for Manchester United over the last two months but posted a hat trick against Tottenham earlier this month. In that game, he broke the world record for most goals for club and country, with 807, 115 of which have come for Portugal.
Diogo Jota has been in goal-scoring form for Liverpool, and Joao Felix is always dangerous. Santos will have choices to make in midfield with Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Joao Moutinho, Danilo Pereira and Ruben Neves on the squad. Rui Patricio mans the net for manager Fernando Santos, but his defense will have a change without Ruben Dias or Joao Cancelo.
Portugal hasn’t played since the November 14 home loss to Serbia that sent them to the playoffs. That loss ended a six-game streak without a loss in which they outscored opponents 16-2. Portugal crashed out of Euro 2020 last summer in the Round of 16 with a 1-0 loss to Belgium.
Turkey Betting Analysis
Turkey got into the playoffs by winning three straight games in the fall, two on the road. They smashed Gibraltar at home 6-0 while winning 2-1 in Latvia and 2-1 in Montenegro.
With those wins, they finished with 21 points in Group G, three points ahead of Norway. They didn’t make it out of the group stages at Euro 2020 last summer, losing all three games by a combined 8-1.
Winger Muhammed Kerem Akturkoglu has been automatic in front of the net lately with goals in three of the last four Turkey games. Midfielder Orkun Kokci scored the game-winner against Montenegro, and Halil Devisoglu had two goals against Gibraltar.
Midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu is having a great season for Inter Milan, but Ceglar Soyuncu has struggled in defense with Leicester City. Captain Burak Yılmaz is now 36 years old and has only four goals in 25 Ligue 1 games for Lille this season.
Updates
Portugal will be without Joao Cancelo, and Renato Sanches as both picked up a second yellow card in the Serbia loss and are suspended for the playoffs. Also out are the injured Ruben Dias from Manchester City and Porto’s Pepe, who has COVID-19.
Turkey do not have any major injuries or suspensions leading into this game, and manager Stefan Kuntz has a full squad to choose from.
- Turkey is 2-0 ATS on the road in their last two games
- The over 2.5 goals has hit in four of the last five Portugal games
- Portugal has scored in six of their last seven games
- Turkey covered in their last three group stage wins
Portugal vs Turkey Betting Preview
Looking at the sports betting guides, Portugal is a big favorite to advance to the final, as is Italy in the other semifinal. That would set up a massive Portugal v. Italy final to go to Qatar, with the loser left out. Santos has already made it clear he will resign if Portugal miss out, and with aging players like Ronaldo, Moutinho, and Patricio, this is the last chance for this golden era of Portuguese stars.
Turkey is looking for the big upset, and they have the pedigree to get it done. They haven’t allowed more than two goals in a game since the 6-1 thrashing at Netherlands in September, and they have four wins and two draws in the seven games since the Euros. This squad is finally playing with some confidence, something they will need on Thursday.
A four-month layoff is typical in International play, but it does take some time to get the chemistry back after playing club games. The good thing for both of these teams is that a lot of their players are club teammates, and they are national team veterans. Look for a goal to come early, and that will change the setup for how this game finishes.
Portugal vs Turkey Betting Prediction
This is potentially the last chance for Ronaldo to get into a major tournament; he will turn 39 before Euro 2024. Portugal needs the younger players to step up, and Felix has done that in domestic play, directly involved in seven goals in his last seven La Liga games.
Portugal has the better team on paper and in experience. They didn’t get the job done in the group stage, and anything can happen in a one-off. But Ronaldo lives for these type of games, and with the crowd behind them, Portugal have no excuses not to advance to the Path C Final.
I like Portugal 2, Turkey 1.
Portugal is favored at -250 with Turkey +700, and a draw after 90 minutes is +390. If you want to bet just on the team to advance, Portugal is -750, and Turkey is +475, meaning Portugal have an even bigger advantage at home if the game goes to extra time or penalties.
Total goals is set at 2.5, with the over at -125 and the under at +100.
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