The UEFA Champions League is down to eight teams and this week we have the second leg tie of the four quarterfinals on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the final tie to get underway, Manchester City heads to Spain to face Atletico Madrid with a 1-0 lead from the opening leg. Let’s check this Atletico vs City Betting Analysis.
The winner of this two-legged tie advances to the Champions League picks semifinals and a duel against either Real Madrid or Chelsea. It is possible the semis will have yet another all Madrid clash like we’ve seen recently at that stage and even in a final. Real Madrid leads that tie 3-1 so if form holds, Man City could face a Spanish team from the same city in two straight rounds.
The stadium will be partially closed as Atletico Madrid has been punished by UEFA for discriminatory fan behavior. Because of Atletico fans performing a Nazi salute at last week’s game in Manchester, they must close off a section of the stadium that holds 5,000 fans.
Last Game Records
Last week these teams met in the first leg at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester. Man City took a 1-0 win on a goal from Kevin de Bruyne. City had 70% of the possession in the game and outshot Atletico 15-0 but managed just two official shots on goal. They had all nine corner kicks in the game and Atletico committed 13 fouls to eight for City.
Since these teams met in Manchester last week, both have played league games. City drew at home 2-2 against second-place Liverpool to remain atop the English Premier League. Atletico lost against Mallorca in La Liga play on Saturday.
- Wednesday, April 13, 3 pm ET
- Madrid, Spain
- Wanda Metropolitano
Atletico vs City Betting Analysis
Manchester City Betting Analysis
City was frustrated by the play of Atletico in the first leg as they dominated possession and all the stats but struggled to score. They got plenty of chances on free kicks and corners but couldn’t break through until the 70th minute. Substitute Phil Foden brought life and set up de Bruyne for the only goal of the match.
City got goals from de Bruyne and Gabriel Jesus against Liverpool on Sunday. Jesus hadn’t started in league play since January. City has dominated on the road, winning 10 and drawing two in their last 12 road games in all competitions. In their last 630+ minutes of action on the road, they have allowed just one goal.
In Premier League action, de Bruyne has 11 goals while Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez both have 10. Sixteen different players have scored in the domestic campaign as City has 70 goals while conceding just 20. Ederson has 17 clean sheets and just three losses in 30 starts in goal.
In nine Champions League games, they have outscored the opponents 23-9. Mahrez leads the way with six goals while Ederson has posted three clean sheets in his eight starts.
Atletico Madrid Betting Analysis
In the first leg, Atletico played a 5-5-0 formation and rarely tried to move forward in an attacking position. The move by manager Diego Simeone paid off as they held City to just one goal and gave themselves a chance in the second leg.
The top two goal scorers in La Liga play, Luis Suárez and Ángel Correa, did not start the first leg and Suarez didn’t play at all. Now needing a goal it will be interesting to see what lineup Simeone uses. Antoine Griezmann leads Atletico in Champions League goals this season with four while Suarez and Correa both have 11 in league play.
Atletico had won six games in a row in all competitions before the loss in Manchester last week. They followed that with a surprising 1-0 La Liga loss to Mallorca over the weekend.
The good news for Atletico is they are comfortable playing without the ball and they are also comfortable at home. They have won three straight La Liga home games, but they haven’t won in their last seven home games in Champions League play. Those games, since a win in October 2020 have included three losses and four draws.
- Atletico gets Yannick Carrasco back from yellow card suspension for this game. However, both Hector Herrera and Jose Gimenez are still injured and expected to miss leg two.
- On the City side, defender Ruben Dias is expected to still be out with a hamstring injury, however, Kyle Walker is back. Nathan Ake started in his place last week and played well. City will be without Jesus, who is suspended on yellow cards.
- Atletico Madrid have won three of the last four second legs after losing the first leg
- Atletico have gone 11 straight games, conceding either one or zero goals
- Man City has scored in four straight games
- Atletico have scored more than one goal just once in the last five games
- City won 5-0 in their last Champions League road game, at Sporting CP in Portugal
- City have allowed less than two goals in eight of their last nine games
Atletico vs City Betting Preview
This game should be more open than the first leg as Atletico know they have to score to advance. In a perfect world, they would score early and then go back to parking the bus and take their chances on a counterattack or even drag the game out to penalty kicks.
City will control the ball and the possession. The only thing they lacked in the opening game was their finishing, and part of that came from shot selection. As the game wore on they were frustrated and took shots from farther and farther away as they couldn’t break down Atletico and get into the box. Foden finally got that done and possibly earned himself a start in leg two.
Atletico vs City Betting Prediction
In taking a look at the Champions League odds, Man City is favored on the road at -125 while Atletico Madrid is +370. Betting this Champions League game to end in a draw is +270 and a draw means City advance. They are -900 to advance while Atletico Madrid is +550.
Total goals is 2.5 with the over at +100 and the under at -125.
How to Bet on Atletico vs City
Betting on the Champions League is tricky with midweek games after weekend league games and more travel mixed in. However, both of these teams are used to deep runs and know what it takes to advance. Look for a 1-0 or 1-1 result here and under 2.5 goals at -125 as the bet to take. Kevin de Bruyne to score in a third straight game is a solid lean as well at +210.