The ATP continues its tour through Asia this week with the Japan Open, the last of the tennis events in the continent this season and one of the last tournaments of the year before the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, which takes place from November 12-19.
Japan OpenPicks
Pick Fritz to defeat Fulton.
The 500-level event is also one of three tournaments being played this week, but it has the most impressive field, with eight of the top-15 players in the world competing at the Ariake Coliseum in Tokyo.
Japan Open History
For Japan Open predictions, it’s best to take a quick look back at last year’s event, especially considering Taylor Fritz, who won last year, is the top seed at this year’s event. Fritz defeated fellow American Frances Tiafoe in the final of last year’s event, the 48th edition of the Japan Open. Other recent winners include Novak Djokovic (2019) and Daniil Medvedev (2018), although they aren’t competing in this year’s Japan Open predictions.
The tournament was first held as the All-Japan Championships in 1915, but its current iteration extends back to 1968. It has been part of the ATP circuit since 1973 and has been won by legends like Ivan Lendl, John McEnroe, and Pete Sampras, who is a three-time champion.
Top Seeds
As this is a 32-player tournament, none of the top seeds receive byes into the second round, and there have already been a couple of upsets. Fritz, the top seed, is through to the second round after beating Cam Norrie 6-4, 6-3 early Tuesday morning.
Second seed Casper Ruud was playing wild card Yosuke Watanuki as of publication time. Ruud is 10th in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings and trailed world No. 8 Holger Rune by 325 points for the final spot in Turin – he could earn 500 points with a tournament victory and strong tennis stats in Japan.
Alexander Zverev, who desperately needed a strong showing in hopes of participating in Turin, came up short in the first round despite favorable tennis odds against Aussie Jordan Thompson. Seventh seed Karen Khachanov is also out of contention after losing his first-round match against Aussie Alexei Popyrin.
Early Recap
In other news, through the first two days of the Japan Open predictions, the top eight seeds Alex de Minaur, Tommy Paul, and Felix Auger-Aliassime are all through to the second round.
Americans Marcus Giron, Mackenzie McDonald, and Ben Shelton have also advanced in the tournament. Shelton, who reached the quarter-finals in last week’s Shanghai Masters, beat Japanese qualifier Taro Daniel 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (7-2) on Tuesday morning.
Wild card Shintaro Mochizuki is the lone Japanese player through to the second round, although Watanuki was still playing his match against Casper Ruud and was in a first-set tiebreaker as of publication. Mochizuki plays Fritz early Thursday morning.
No.2 seed starts in ✌️@CasperRuud98 with a solid 7-6(6), 6-3 scoreline over Watanuki#kinoshitajotennis | @japanopentennis pic.twitter.com/W9Nw5N680u
— ATP Tour (@atptour) October 17, 2023
Headline Matches
Felix Auger-Aliassime (-275) vs. Sebastian Ofner (+220)
There’s strong upset potential here as Auger-Aliassime has been among the most disappointing players on the ATP Tour this season. Expected to take a step forward after making the Nitto ATP Finals last season, the Canadian is 55th in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings with just 835 points this season.
He’s 15-17 this season, and Ofner is 10-11. They’ve never played each other in an official ATP event.
Tommy Paul (-225) vs. Mackenzie McDonald (+175)
It’s an all-American clash on Wednesday, but it’s probably best to go with the tennis predictions favorite Tommy Paul, who technically still has a shot at qualifying for Turin and thus has a lot more to play for.
Paul is 12th right now and could have 3,005 total points with a win, which would likely move him into ninth or 10th, depending on how those ahead of him perform.
Japan Open Predictions
With the way the draw is shaping up, it’s possible there’s another all-American showdown in the final of the Japan Open predictions. Fritz has a decent path to the final, with a wild card awaiting him in the second round and the winner of Christian Garin and Popyrin in the quarter-finals.
Unless Thompson goes on a run, one of Paul, Shelton, or McDonald will reach at least the semi-finals in the bottom half of the draw.
- Pick: Fritz def. Shelton
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