Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev have made it through the rest of the field to square off in the 2022 Australian Open men’s final. For Nadal, this final represents a chance to become the first player to claim 21 major championships in men’s tennis. Medvedev, meanwhile, will look to derail a player from reaching major number 21 for the second major championship match in a row.
Nadal vs Medvedev Stats
Looking at Rafael Nadal’s stats
Rafael Nadal has dropped just four sets in six matches on the way to the 2022 Australian Open final. He has been on-court for roughly 17.5 hours during those six matches, averaging under three hours per match in the tournament. A big reason for Nadal’s relatively low time on court is his ability to punish the second serves of his opponents.
Through six matches, Nadal has won 108 points on the second serves of his opponents, the most of any player in this year’s Australian Open. Against Matteo Berrettini in the semifinals, Nadal won 17 of his 34 points, returning the second serve of Berrettini. Compared to the 16 of 68 points he won on Berrettini’s first serve, it is clear that Nadal needs to take advantage of second serve points against Medvedev.
Looking at the Daniil Medvedev’s stats
Daniil Medvedev has dropped five sets in six matches en route to the final of the Australian Open. He has spent about 15 minutes more on court than Nadal in his six matches, with there being a negligible difference in time on court between the two players. Whereas Nadal’s strength has been his return of second serves, Medvedev has been the best player in the tournament at returning first serves.
Coming into the final, Medvedev has won 148 points against the first serve of his opponents. The next best total in that department is Matteo Berrettini, who won 134 points returning first serves. Medvedev has also fired off 94 aces in his six matches, 52 more than Nadal has mustered in his run to the final.
Betting Trends for Rafael Nadal vs. Daniil Medvedev
- Rematch of 2019 US Open
- Nadal 1-0 over Medvedev in major finals (2019)
- Nadal undefeated 9-0 in 2022
- Medvedev 9-1 in 2022
- Both players have played nine sets in the last two matches
Who to Bet Rafael Nadal vs. Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev enters as the favorite against Rafael Nadal, with Medvedev at -215 to win and Nadal at +165 on the other side. While it is appealing to take Nadal as an underdog, there is a reason he is in that spot against the reigning US Open champion. Medvedev’s defense is too much to overcome for even the biggest hitters in the sport right now, as Medvedev neutralized Stefanos Tsitsipas in one of the performances of the tournament so far.
Taking Medvedev -3.5 games is the way to go in this match as Medvedev should win a second straight hardcourt major crown. Nadal will be the favorite to win the French Open, but the Russian’s ability to turn defense into the offense will set him apart over what should be a four or five-set affair.
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