Beginning May 28, the best players in the world will convene at Roland Garros for the second Grand Slam of the tennis schedule: the 2023 French Open. The men’s French Open Contenders are typically a formality as Rafael Nadal, “the King of Clay,” has been practically unbeatable. The fall-off has been expected for several years, but it feels like a real possibility in 2023.
Nadal has won 14 of the last 18 French Open brackets and is still one of the favorites for French Open picks in 2023, but hasn’t been as sharp as he normally is, and there’s a Spanish – Carlos Alcaraz – predecessor waiting in line to take his King of Clay crown.
French Open Contenders
| Player | Odds |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +125 |
| Novak Djokovic | +220 |
| Rafael Nadal | +400 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | +900 |
| Jannik Sinner | +1400 |
| Holger Rune | +1400 |
| Casper Ruud | +1800 |
| Alexander Zverev | +2500 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +2800 |
| Andrey Rublev | +3000 |
Nadal’s Injury Troubles
Although he won the Australian Open and French Open in 2022, Nadal battled injury throughout the second half of the season and hasn’t been himself since. He needed four rounds to win his first round match at the Australian Open before losing in straight sets in the second round to American Mackenzie McDonald. He hasn’t played since.
Nadal has been battling a hip injury and recently pulled out of this week’s Italian Open. He still intends on being ready to defend his title at Roland Garros, but he probably shouldn’t be in anyone’s French Open best bets. With that said, the same talk has followed Nadal during the last few years, and he continues to dominate on clay.
Alcaraz Ready for Greatness
Alcaraz had a breakthrough year in 2022. He reached the quarterfinals at the French Open and continued to get better as the season went on before finally winning his first Grand Slam at the US Open and becoming the youngest player to ever achieve a world No. 1 ranking.
He missed the Australian Open while recovering from injury but has been in fine form since. Tennis predictions favorite in the French Open odds, Alcaraz won his first tournament back from injury at the Argentina Open in February. He’s coming off of another win at the Madrid Open and now has four titles this season, and has reached at least the semifinal in every tournament he entered.
Why You Should Fade Djokovic
Novak Djokovic is the only player besides Nadal to win the French Open since 2015. He’s certainly one of the top French Open contenders, but it’s been a grind the last few weeks. Djokovic proved he can still dominate on the big stage with his win at the 2023 Australian Open, but he has played sparingly since and is just 2-2 in his last four matches.
Alcaraz is set to pass Djokovic as the world No. 1 this week in Rome and, given the way the 20-year-old is playing, should cement his status as the best player in the world at Roland Garros. Djokovic isn’t playing in Rome and could have trouble playing four- or five-set matches in a Grand Slam after so much time off.
Other French Open Contenders
It’s hard to find good value right now, given the way Alcaraz is playing, but there’s a few players worth taking a look at for French Open picks. Holger Rune (+1400) is having a breakthrough season, having won his first title at the Bavarian International in April. He made the final at the Monte-Carlo Masters the week prior and has a winning percentage of 67.1 on clay.
Looking further down the board, Felix Auger-Aliassime (+5000) is a decent longshot bet. He took Nadal to five sets at last year’s French Open Contenders and has been on the cusp of Grand Slam greatness for a few years now. If he’s ever going to break through, it could be at Roland Garros.
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