Rematch for the Ages: Djokovic vs Alcaraz Wimbledon Final Betting Trends Favor Upset
As unpredictable as the 2024 Wimbledon Championship draw has been, it’s fitting that when all is said and done we’re left with a rematch of the 2023 final as Carlos Alcaraz defends his title against 24-time grand slam winner Novak Djokovic in Sunday’s final.
Alcaraz booked a spot in the final after a four-set win over Daniil Medvedev and is looking to win his fourth career and second consecutive grand slam, while Djokovic is an eight-time winner at the All England Club hoping to win his first grand slam of the year.
He’s more rested, but Alcaraz has looked unbeatable and is now confident he can beat Djokovic, which is why he’s the pick for the Djokovic vs Alcaraz for Wimbledon Final betting trends.
Wimbledon Men’s Final Information
Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz
Location: All England Club in London, England
Date & Time: Sunday, July 14 at 9 a.m ET
Watch On: ESPN and Tennis TV
Djokovic vs Alcaraz Picks
- Pick: Alcaraz and Over 40.5 (+198)
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Odds Breakdown for Both
Djokovic had the third-shortest Wimbledon odds to win the tournament and is the betting underdog in the Djokovic vs Alcaraz for Wimbledon Final betting trends, with +120 moneyline odds. He has +1.5 (-110) match handicaps odds and the total for games is 40.5. On the other side, Alcaraz is a -160 moneyline favorite with -1.5 (-125) match hcp odds.
Sportsbook | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
BetUS Odds | Djokovic: +1½ -105 Alcaraz: -1½ -125 |
N. Djokovic: +115 C. Alcaraz: -145 |
O 41 -120 U 41 -110 |
BetNow Odds | – | N. Djokovic: +120 C. Alcaraz: -140 |
– |
MyBookie Odds | Djokovic: +1½ -107 Alcaraz: -1½ -129 |
N. Djokovic: +115 C. Alcaraz: -153 |
O 40½ -124 U 40½ -111 |
Bookmaker Odds | Djokovic: +1½ -106 Alcaraz: -1½ -115 |
N. Djokovic: +130 C. Alcaraz: -154 |
O 41 -107 U 41 -113 |
Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Lines
BetUS Betting Line: Alcaraz -145
Alcaraz is 2-3 against Djokovic in his career. He has lost each of his last two matches against Djokovic, but that was during last year when the 37-year-old Serbian was nearly unbeatable.
He hasn’t been himself this year, still without a tournament win while losing multiple matches against low-ranked opponents. Alcaraz has taken his game to the next level at Wimbledon, especially since surviving a five-set scare against Frances Tiafoe in the third round.
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BetNow Betting Line: Alcaraz -140
BetNow and BetUS have the most favorable moneyline odds for an Alcaraz win, with MyBookie having much higher Wimbledon tennis odds at -168. An Alcaraz win feels inevitable, considering he proved he could beat Djokovic at the All England Club in 2023 and has been much more consistent this year.
He also doesn’t have injury concerns, whereas Djokovic hadn’t played in a month before the start of Wimbledon due to a knee injury and really hasn’t been tested thus far.
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MyBookie Betting Line: Alcaraz and Over 40.5 (+198)
MyBookie has plenty of great prop odds for the Djokovic vs Alcaraz for Wimbledon Final betting trends, including an Alcaraz win paired with the over 40.5 games total for +198 odds.
Djokovic and Alcaraz played 46 games in their 2023 final and that included a pair of 6-1 set results. We’ll likely see at least a four set match and probably with some closer sets.
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Bookmaker Betting Line: Alcaraz -1.5 (-113)
This one could go either way as we should expect a five-set match and it is possible for Alcaraz to win while still losing in spread betting for best tennis bets.
However, he has covered the number in each of his matches thus far at Wimbledon and should do so again, especially considering Djokovic has been prone to losing focus and dropping a set in lopsided fashion against higher-ranked players – he dropped a 6-1 result in last year’s final against Alcaraz.
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Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Recent Trends
Djokovic Last 5
- 6-4, 7-6 (2), 6-4 win over Lorenzo Musetti
- Walkover win over Alex de Minaur
- 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 win over Holger Rune
- 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 (3) win over Alexei Popyrin
- 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 7-5 win over Jacob Fearnley
Alcaraz Last 5
- 6-7 (1), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win over Daniil Medvedev
- 5-7, 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 win over Tommy Paul
- 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 win over Ugo Humbert
- 5-7, 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 (2), 6-2 win over Frances Tiafoe
- 7-6 (5), 6-2, 6-2 win over Aleksander Vukic
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Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Best Bet
The best value we have found is with a two-leg parlay with Alcaraz to win and the game to go over the 40.5 total with paired odds of +198.
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