Luke Rockhold will finally have the chance to throw shots in the octagon on August 20th. As the co-main event of UFC 278, Saturday night’s event at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City will see two middleweights attempt to stem the bleeding in their careers.
All or Nothing for Costa
For Paulo Costa, it’s a chance to either leave the UFC on a high or negotiate a favorable resignation, while for Luke Rockwell, it’s about wrapping up his career on a high note.
We analyze each fighter’s chances and offer up our Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold betting predictions based on the UFC odds ahead of this much-awaited fight.
Fighters’ Previous Fights Performance
Both fighters are entering this contest off the back of consecutive losses, making the stakes even higher in this fight.
Rockhold Performance
For Luke Rockhold, the 37-year-old has not stepped inside the octagon for three years, prior to which he has been savagely knocked out in three of his past four fights.
His recent form is hardly indicative of the quality fighter he was in his prime, holding a record of 16-5-0, with the UFC Middleweight belt in his possession once upon a time.
Costa Performance
Paulo Costa has also spent time away from the ring, having not fought since October 2021. While the Brazilian is also on a two-fight losing streak.
Costa’s last two losses were to high-quality opponents—Vettori and Israel Adesanya, who have only ever lost six fights between them, to a combined 41 victories.
Prior to these defeats, Costa was unbeaten, both in his first five UFC fights and his entire professional career.
Either way, this fight will be significant for whoever wins to regain momentum and potentially a fatal blow to the loser’s career.
Costa vs. Rockhold Betting Analysis
With a considerable amount on the line for each fighter, both men will be keen to put their best foot forward come August 20th. Here’s a look at each fighter’s strengths and how we think they will approach this matchup.
Paulo Costa Analysis
Costa will be desperate to revive a career that saw him have a title fight against Israel Adesanya two years ago.
The Brazilian hard-hitter has been taking shots at Luke Rockhold on social media this year, saying that the veteran can’t handle his punching power.
There may be merit to that argument—Costa has won all but two of his victories by way of knockout, with 11 such stoppages to his name.
Costa’s Pressure
As the younger, fitter fighter, Costa will look to pressure Rockhold by peppering him with power shots, driving him up against the cage before finishing him with punches.
This is exactly how Rockhold l lost his last fight in the second round and should be the approach Costa adopts as well.
Costa’s Ability
Having recently spent time working with boxing guru Kelson Pinto, Costa is confident of his ability to implement this game plan, stating,
“I prepare for a war, but I really don’t believe he can hang with me. I think this fight will finish quickly, but I don’t care. If he could, in some way, hold [his own] and bring a war, I’m ready.”
Expect Costa to come out swinging, searching for Rockhold’s chin to finish this early.
Luke Rockhold Analysis
It’s hard to look at Rockhold as anything other than a seasoned veteran, drudging out for another fight beyond his prime. Seven years ago, the 37-year-old held UFC’s middleweight belt as a strong professional record.
Now, however, he has slumped to back-to-back losses, not entered the ring in three years, and been brutally knocked out in three of his last four fights.
It will certainly take some special training camp for Rockhold to return to the ring three years older and turn around the fortunes of what feels like a fading career. However, at his peak, Rockhold was a formidable opponent.
Rockhold’s Wins
Quite the opposite to Costa, the majority of Rockhold’s wins have come through submission, with eight of his 16 wins ending in a tap out by his opponent.
His tactics are varied, having scored five rear-naked chokes, one inverted triangle kimura, one guillotine choke, and one armbar. Add a strong kicking game and right cross, and a fully fit Rockhold is no joke.
How Rockhold Can Win?
For Rockhold to have a chance in this one, he’ll need to keep the fight centered on grappling. With his submission game strong, and his stand-up game susceptible to knockouts, particularly against a fighter like Costa, Rockhold needs to stay on the floor this weekend.
Costa vs. Rockhold Betting Preview
Bookmakers have Paulo Costa well ahead in this fight, indicative of Rockwell’s time away from the ring and the nature of his recent losses compared to Costa’s strengths.
Overall UFC odds show Costa at -375, with Rockhold trailing on +310, making Costa about an 80% favorite.
Interestingly, odds are overwhelmingly for this fight to finish early, with MMA odds showing +250 if the fight goes the distance and -325 if there is an early stoppage.
Costa’s Scoring
Specifically, Costa scoring a knockout is the most favored outcome, with a moneyline of -175. Chances are this will be early as well, as Costa is paying +165 to win in round one, and +185 for a first round knockout.
Despite Costa’s position as the strong favorite, the least likely result in this fight, other than a draw, is Costa winning by submission—the odds are as high as +2200 for this outcome.
Costa vs. Rockhold Betting Prediction
Looks like this fight will be Luke Rockhold’s last, as we can’t see this one going any different to the odds.
Who to Bet On?
The 37-year-old’s ability to take a punch seems to be diminishing with every fight, and it’s unlikely that anything he’s done in training will have altered that over his three years away from the ring.
Against such a prolific knockout artist as Paulo Costa, having a weak chin and plenty of time away from the octagon does not bode well. Our UFC picks have Costa winning this one by KO in the first round.
UFC Pick: Costa winning by KO (-190)
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