The fight that a whole bunch of MMA fans have had circled on the UFC schedule for a while now is this weekend’s main event. Jon “Bones” Jones will be making his return after three years out of the octagon to take on Ciryl Gane for the heavyweight championship.
Read along for a Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane prediction, as well as a deep dive into this matchup and what betting lines look the best for you.
Will Jones be able to take the throne of a new division at this stage of his career?
Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane Information
Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.
Date and Time: March 4, 2023, 10:00 PM ET.
How to Watch: ESPN+
Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane Last Fight Record
Jones hasn’t been in the UFC octagon since February 2020, when he won a very close decision over Dominick Reyes.
Gane is coming off an impressive 3rd round KO victory over Tai Tuivasa when he headlined the inaugural UFC Paris event last September.
Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane Betting Analysis
Jon Jones Facts to Know
It almost feels surreal to be putting together a betting analysis on Jon Jones. Many people thought he would never fight again, but now he looks to get right back into his usual winning ways. Jones has a 26-1 record, with his one loss being a really unfortunate disqualification in a fight he was dominating years ago.
Jones has ten KO victories and six submissions. Interestingly, in his last five official fights, he has only one finish. Will he be able to bring his finishing ability back at this stage of his career and at the heavyweight division?
A lot of experts will tell you the big key to this fight is how well Jones will be able to grapple with Gane. Jones has a wrestling pedigree that is levels upon levels higher than Gane has. It looks like the only threat that Gane can bring to Jones’ 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes is slick heel hooks.
Ciryl Gane Facts to Know
The Frenchmen Gane is looking to pull off the biggest win of his career, probably ever. He gets a shot at the GOAT of MMA and has advantages all across the board if he takes advantage of them. Gane comes from a Muay Thai background and has an MMA record of 11-1 with five KOs and three submissions.
Even though Gane is looked at as a much better striker than Jones, his statistics are very similar. Gane averages 5.11 significant strikes landed per minute and has absorbed only 2.25 sig. strikes in that minute as well.
As stated before, Gane has only shown a slick heel hook off his back as a defense for takedowns. You have to remember that Gane was outwrestled in the later rounds by Francis Ngannou in their title fight last year.
Updates
No injuries were reported to the NSAC. This is the debut at heavyweight for Jon Jones.
Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane Betting Preview
With one of the biggest fights of 2023 coming to the UFC this weekend, we can’t let the excitement and fandom get in the way of betting intelligently. UFC odds have Jones as a -175 favorite as we inch closer to the closing lines.
Gane, who opened as the favorite, is now the +150 underdog. This is still quite an impressive line for Gane to have against Jones. The fact that he opened as the favorite is unbelievable.
To get the proper Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane prediction and betting pick, we have to preview how this fight could possibly go down and what betting lines work the best for our analysis of this matchup.
Jones obviously has the advantage of being the GOAT of MMA for the last decade-plus, and he will be much more in-tuned with all the possible positions and tough moments to get through inside the octagon.
Gane’s youth and athleticism vs Jones’ strength
Gane’s advantages come with movement and his youth. He looks to be in his athletic prime and is a natural heavyweight with a very impressive physique. Don’t get it twisted; even though chatter on social media has been about Jones’ new physique, he is clearly in shape and will be strong.
Jones might not have the same “pretty looking” kickboxing style of Gane, but he has proven to be a very elite striker in MMA. So those two skill sets cancel out. The grappling is heavily in Jones’s favor, and that is where this fight might start to get out of reach for the Frenchman.
“Bones” Jones will be looking to make Gane have to fight his way out of bad situations and work his way up to the feet to get to where he wants to be. The biggest question in this matchup is who will be able to do the most work in the championship rounds.
There is a lot of value in either money line this weekend. The best advice you can take is to not make this too complicated. It is hard enough to make UFC predictions on who gets their hand raised, don’t try to predict the exact method of victory or outcome to a fight at this high of a level.
Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane Betting Prediction
While piling together all the analytics and previewing the betting lines for this heavyweight championship fight, a Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane Prediction is very tough to arrive at.
The most likely way this fight will play out is the first round starting off with a lot of movement from Gane, keeping his distance and kicking Jones’s legs. Gane will probably try very hard to stay at kicking range and steal as many in the first three rounds as possible.
Jones’ Experience and Tenacity Will Pose a Challenge for Gane in a Potential Fight
Jones is going to become more dangerous as the fight goes on. He has years and years of experience against some of the toughest killers in UFC history and has come out on top every single time. Gane has shown he has taken the easy way out of a fight and coasted to a finish. Jones will fight hard for all 25 minutes, especially if he feels like he is behind on the scorecards early.
Jon Jones is going to have his hand raised at the end of the night and will retake his throne at the top of the UFC. This time will be a very historic victory and will mark the start of his heavyweight reign.
With the style of fighting that heavyweights have, along with the skillset that Jones has, be prepared to see Jones be the champion for another 5+ years until he decides he has had enough. There are just different levels of greatness that appear in all sports, usually only once in a generation, and Jon Jones is that for MMA.
If you love sports and want more sports betting information follow us as @InsidersBetDig on Twitter and sign up to our mailing list for free betting picks.
