In the final event of the 2022 UFC fight schedule, there are many great matchups from top to bottom. On the main card, there will be a featherweight bout between two MMA veterans, Alex Caceres (19-3) and Julian Erosa (28-9).
This is where you will find a Caceres vs Erosa betting analysis and prediction for your MMA bettors out there.
Last Fight Record
Caceres is coming off his first loss in six fights. He dropped a unanimous decision to Sodiq Yusuff in March.
Erosa is on a three-fight winning streak, coming off a decision win over Hakeem Dawodu in September.
Caceres vs. Erosa Betting Analysis
Alex Caceres
Alex Caceres is going to make his 27th appearance in a UFC octagon this Saturday when he takes on Erosa.
Over his up-and-down UFC career, Caceres has shown that he is on top of his game over the last two-three years. He is 5-1 since 2019, with two submission victories.
Caceres’ Experience
Caceres has a ton of experience in the UFC and averages a time of 12:02 inside the octagon.
He brings a high-volume style to the cage and has averaged 4.15 strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 2.92 strikes per minute.
Caceres’ High-volume Style
With this high-volume style, he occasionally will mix in his wrestling and has averaged 0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes at an impressive 70% success rate.
This means when he does decide to take the fight to the ground, he can get the job done. His takedown defense is at 64% going into this bout against a great grappler like Erosa.
Julian Erosa
Julian Erosa is one of the most exciting fighters to watch in the UFC right now. After losing his first three fights in the UFC, Erosa has bounced back and has a 5-1 record since.
Erosa’s Fighting Style
He is an aggressive fighter that finishes very consistently. Out of his 29 career wins, he has finished 23 of them. Erosa has collected 11 TKO/KO wins and 12 submissions.
Erosa also has a high-volume and pressure fighting style but lacks the same striking defense as Caceres.
He averages 6.26 strikes landed per minute and absorbs 6.30 in that same minute on average. This proves that Erosa is willing to take a shot to land one and has very good durability.
Erosa’s Ability
The Xtreme Couture trainee is very dangerous on the ground, averaging 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 61% takedown defense.
With his elite submission skills, Erosa will sometimes welcome the fight to go to the ground because of how dangerous he can be from his back. Look out for his favorite submission, the brabo choke (or d’arce), in many different positions in the cage.
Alex Caceres vs. Julian Erosa Betting Preview
After breaking down the Caceres vs Erosa betting analysis, let’s see what the oddsmakers have the lines for this bout as.
According to UFC odds, Julian Erosa is the -162 betting favorite going into this featherweight bout at the UFC APEX.
Caceres as the Underdog
Caceres is the underdog at +142 currently. This is a pretty closely matched fight with two men that have very exciting fighting styles.
This is only the third time in Erosa’s UFC career being the betting favorite. He is 1-1 in those fights. This is a very surprising betting trend for the 28-9 featherweight.
Caceres is no stranger to being the underdog in the octagon. This is the 17th time in his career he will be in plus-odds at a sportsbook.
He is used to going into fights with the odds against him, and that might be somewhere he thrives. Oddsmakers have the fight going the distance at -160 currently.
Erosa’s Fight Record
With Erosa having 28 fights ending inside the distance in his career and Caceres being submitted seven times, this is another surprising betting line for this bout.
All fight and betting analytics aside, this fight is set to be a potential fight of the night this weekend. Both fighters seem to be in their prime and are fighting for performance bonuses at this point in their careers.
Alex Caceres vs. Julian Erosa Betting Prediction
When you look at the Caceres vs Erosa betting analysis and break down the numbers side of this matchup, Alex Caceres seems to have the more efficient fight style. To make good bets on MMA, you can’t solely focus on the numbers.
UFC picks are the toughest to make because it really is about the best going up against the best and all the fights are so close.
Also, the sport of MMA is so unpredictable that you take a huge risk every time you place a bet.
Who to Bet On?
The final prediction for this bout is Julian Erosa getting the job done. With Caceres’ lack of submission defense and the hot streak that Erosa is currently on, look for an Erosa finish.
Erosa is way too dangerous of a finisher for the way that Caceres tends to put himself in bad situations while fighting in the octagon.
Caceres will need to fight a focused, perfectly executed game plan against Erosa to not get hurt, and that is something not worth betting on.
Erosa will be able to hurt him on the feet and then finish him either with a submission or ground and pound. It is going to be too dangerous for anybody to survive getting hurt in front of Erosa right now.
UFC Pick: Julian Erosa (-165)
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