To close out the 2022 UFC fight schedule, UFC Vegas 66 will showcase quite a few big fights. Two top-15 lightweights will face off in an exciting matchup in the co-main event slot for Saturday night.
Arman Tsarukyan (18-3) will be meeting Damir Ismagulov (24-1) in the octagon on Saturday night.
Let’s break down this lightweight matchup and come up with a Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov prediction to bet on this weekend.
Last Fight Record
- Tsarukyan is coming off a very controversial decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot in the main event this last June.
- Ismagulov is also coming off of a close fight, but he got the split decision victory over Guram Kutateladze.
Tsarukyan vs. Ismagulov Betting Analysis
Arman Tsarukyan
At just 26 years old, Tsarukyan is one of the brightest rising contenders in the UFC. He is 18-3 with seven KOs and five submission victories in his professional MMA career.
The only two losses he has in the UFC have been against a top lightweight in Gamrot, and he dropped his debut bout against none other than the current champion Islam Makhachev.
Tsarukyan Mixed Style
Tsarukyan has a typical Russian mixed martial artist style. Fights with a lot of pressure but is very technical on the feet while mixing in a lot of level changes.
He currently averages 3.76 strikes landed per minute and only absorbs 1.86. This shows how much he hits his opponents and doesn’t get hit. He is constantly in a dominant position.
His grappling game is very strong. Tsarukyan averages 2.71 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon, even though it’s at only a 33% success rate.
His takedown defense is still at 75% after being taken down six times by Gamrot.
When he is on top on the ground, he usually goes for control time and to inflict damage while in a dominant position. He has 0 submission attempts in the UFC.
Damir Ismagulov
Ismagulov will come into this fight as the more experienced, physically bigger, and more powerful Russian fighter.
With his impressive 24-1 professional record, Ismagulov has 12 KOs and one submission victory in his career. But he has yet to finish anyone in the UFC.
He has averaged 4.05 strikes landed per minute in his UFC career, along with only absorbing 2.56 strikes with an impressive 63% defense on the feet.
Striking Techniques
Ismagulov will show a wider variety of striking techniques than his opponent this weekend. Look for spinning back kicks, jumping switch kicks, and a lot of wild boxing combinations.
Ismagulov is also a very solid grappler. He averages 1.40 takedowns per fight in the UFC but has no submission attempts.
He mixes in his level-changes will with the striking he shows in the octagon.
The most important statistic of Ismagulov is his 90% takedown defense. He will need to hold that number in the 90% range to have a chance to beat Tsarukyan.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Damir Ismagulov Betting Preview
After breaking down this lightweight bout on the analytic side of the matchup, let’s dive into the betting preview. To make a proper Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov prediction, you will need to know the betting lines and their value.
Odds Breakdown
UFC odds have Tsarukyan as the -190 betting favorite going into this co-main event bout. He has been the betting favorite in every fight of his UFC career, besides his debut against Makhachev.
He is a lesser favorite in this matchup than he was against Gamrot earlier this year.
Ismagulov is the +170 underdog this weekend, which is very valuable for the caliber of fighter that he is. This will be the first time in his UFC career that he will be the underdog. Ismagulov hasn’t been less than a -200 favorite in the UFC.
An interesting line for this fight is the over 2.5 rounds being at -260. This means that oddsmakers are predicting this fight will go to the scorecards.
Both of these fights are tough and fight with a lot of heart. It is tough seeing either of them getting finished.
Let’s Preview Betting Lines
While previewing all the betting lines for this matchup, it is important to see that both men are at odds of winning by decision.
This is something to think about when you figure out who you’re predicting to win, knowing that this fight will most likely be a decision.
When we talk about styles, these two match up very evenly. Both fighters have a great background in grappling while training in Russia, and both have some serious striking skills.
Ismagulov is a slightly longer fighter, throwing many more straight punches and using more kicks to the body and head.
Tsarukyan will be kicking hard to the legs of his opponent and will use his boxing combinations to set up level changes for all 15 minutes.
This is great matchmaking by the UFC, showcasing two of the best guys in the division on a Fight Night card.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Damir Ismagulov Betting Prediction
To make the best UFC picks, you have to look into this betting analysis and preview all fights available, especially if you are new to UFC betting.
After a closer look at both fighters, it is clear that the advantage is slightly in Tsarukyan’s favor. He will be the more explosive fighter in the octagon on Saturday.
The final Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov prediction is that Tsarukyan will get his hand raised. His pressure and explosiveness will be too much for Ismagulov to handle.
Who to Bet On?
The level changes will be tough to defend for all 15 minutes and Tsarukyan potentially only needs one landed to do the damage to win.
One of the slicing elbows of Tsarukyan can change this fight, and that is too much to bet against. The odds are pretty decent all around for him, so a moneyline bet is perfectly fine for a good payout.
UFC Pick: Arman Tsarukyan (-190)
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