In the co-main event slot of one of the most anticipated UFC events of the year, the women’s strawweight belt is on the line when champion Carla Esparza (20-6) defends her belt against former champion Zhang Weili (22-3).
Last Fight Record
Esparza is coming off a title victory where she got her belt back from Rose Namajunas in May of 2022.
Weili is fresh off of a spectacular KO victory over UFC legend Joanna Jedrzejczyk at the UFC Singapore event in June.
Esparza vs. Weili Betting Analysis
Carla Esparza
If you look at Carla Esparza record, she is currently on a quiet 6-fight winning streak where she has taking out almost all of the top names in the division since 2019.
She averages an impressive 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC with a 35% accuracy.
A Tough Breakdown
Esparza vs Weili betting can be tough to breakdown with the clear physical disadvantages that Esparza is giving up to Weili.
She is nowhere near as strong or explosive as the Chinese martial artist, and it will be easy to see that in any video you see of them.
Esparza’s Struggle
Esparza really struggles in the standup game, with only 2.20 strikes landed per minute while absorbing 2.59.
It is easy to see that Esparza’s path to victory is going to be wrestling and controlling Weili from top position until she can take her back.
Zhang Weili
As stated before, the Esparza vs Weili betting analysis is pretty simple. Weili has the advantage in just about every physical attribute and the explosiveness of her movements will be a big issue for Esparza to go up against.
Weili will certainly have to engage in wrestling, which is where Esparza is comfortable, but the tough Chinese fighter is no slouch on the ground.
Weili Averaging Number
She averages 2.09 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 60% takedown defense. It is going to be a tough night for Esparza to take Weili down and hold her there.
Even with praising Esparza’s last handful of fights, Zhang Weili fight prediction shows we can’t forget that Weili has been in there with the best of the best as well.
She just finished debatably the greatest strawweight ever in June and is looking to get her belt back.
UFC Injury Update
There are no updates for this preliminary card bout. No injuries reported to the UFC coming into fight week.
Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili Betting Preview
According to UFC odds, Esparza is a big underdog at +270. Weili is in a familiar position as the betting favorite with odds at -330.
The all-around skills of Weili and all the different things she has shown in the octagon over the years is what gives her the big advantage in oddsmakers’ eyes.
We know that Weili has some serious durability by seeing the war she went through the first time she fought Joanna, and then we see how she bounces back from adversity in the second Namajunas fight.
One of the Most Legit Contender
Weili is one of the most legit contenders the strawweight division has ever seen.
A fight like this seems to be forgotten when we have jam-packed UFC events like this one, but be prepared to see a spectacular performance from either side of this bout.
Esparza vs Weili betting is tough with the very little value in a Weili pick, but look for prop bets to get the best odds you can.
Esparza vs. Weili Betting Predictions
UFC predictions this weekend are very tough to make, with all the dangerous martial artists going up against each other. Unfortunately, this one might be the easiest one to make on the whole card.
It is very tough to see any way that Esparza can put Weili in a position she can’t get out of swiftly and then accumulate damage on Esparza.
The crafty wrestling is literally the only thing Weili needs to worry about, and it is guaranteed that was a vocal point in this training camp.
The speed and strength alone puts Weili at an incredible advantage over Esparza, and this one seems to have all outcomes pointing in Weili’s favor.
Who to Bet On?
We have seen even bigger upsets, and the champion should never be counted out; but Weili is the pick for this fight.
A finish by Zhang Weili is a very easy bet to make with odds at -125, which gives it a little more value for cheering on Weili.
UFC Pick: Zhang Weili (-125)
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