In the premier prelim slot of UFC Vegas 65, flyweights Charles Johnson (11-3) and Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-7) will be meeting each other in the octagon.
Both men will be fighting to break into the flyweight rankings following an impressive performance. Time to break down this matchup and figure out the Johnson vs Zhumagulov best bets.
Charles Johnson vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov Information
- Venue and Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Date: November 19, 2022
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Records
Charles Johnson is trying to bounce back from a decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev in July.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov will be trying to get back in the win column after dropping two fights in a row. The last time was against Jeff Molina via split decision.
Johnson vs. Zhumagulov Analysis
This will be only the second time that Johnson shows up on the UFC fight schedule because he had his debut this last summer.
The statistical comparison in this matchup is not a great place to look because Johnson only has one fight against arguably the most dominant wrestler in the division.
Even though Johnson was taken down 11 times in his fight against Mokaev, he stuffed 12 attempts.
This is impressive; he did not break at all during the three rounds and is the only man to go to decision against Mokaev in the UFC.
Zhumagulov Averaging Numbers
Zhumagulov averages 3.98 strikes landed per minute but absorbs 4.70. He will also attempt a few takedowns in a fight, potentially more than usual after seeing Mokaev landing all those against Johnson earlier this year.
After starting his UFC career at 1-4, Zhumagulov is fighting with his back against the wall this weekend.
You would assume he needs to fight to finish and not let it go to the scorecards, but that is going to be easier said than done against a much larger fighter in Johnson.
Johnson will have about five inches in both height and reach over Zhumagulov in the cage on Saturday.
Taking Fight to Distance
It will be hard for the Kazakhistanian fighter to close the distance against the much rangier fighter that has some legit striking. Prepare for this one to be a striking battle for most of the fight.
Johnson vs Zhumagulov best bets are made by comparing the two styles. Johnson has shown some pretty good defense from the clinch, but the only UFC experience he has shouldn’t even be looked at for this fight. Mokaev is on a different level than everyone.
Odds Breakdown
Charles Johnson
UFC odds have Johnson as the -160 betting favorite this weekend. He is back as the betting favorite, something he is used to in his long LFA career before the UFC.
He was the flyweight champion and was the favorite going into his last five fights in the promotion.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
This weekend will be the sixth time Zhumagulov will be the betting underdog out of his last seven professional fights. He has lost the other five times as an underdog. His odds are set at +140 in this fight.
Johnson vs. Zhumagulov Betting Pick and Prediction
Making Johnson vs Zhumagulov best bets is pretty interesting because Johnson only has experience against an outlier in a UFC competition.
And UFC picks are always tough to make, no matter who is meeting in the octagon, due to the unpredictability of the sport.
Johnson will have the major height and reach advantages, which will prove to be a major factor in how this fight plays out. He will be able to keep Zhumagulov at a distance and pick him apart from the outside.
Johnson has also shown some very solid clinch defense. If this fight gets into those positions up against the fence, he will be able to get his underhooks and turn the smaller Zhumagulov around and break out toward the center of the octagon.
Who to Bet On?
I think that Zhumagulov is going to be too easy to touch for Johnson, and it will be a tough night for the 1-4 UFC fighter. Johnson will be able to stay at range and be a sniper from the outside.
Even though Jeff Molina couldn’t finish Zhumagulov, look for Johnson to hurt him badly enough and be able to finish this fight potentially.
He has a lot of power for a flyweight and can land in bunches that lead to a referee stoppage.
Charles Johnson will become one of the more exciting flyweight prospects and work his way up in the rankings, as long as he can still make that 126 lb. limit and have that physical advantage in the UFC octagon.
UFC Pick: Charles Johnson (-160)
UFC Pick: Charles Johnson wins inside distance (+265)
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