In arguably the most hyped of all the 2022 UFC events, UFC 280 is coming this weekend with a card stacked from top to bottom with some of the best talents the promotion has to offer.
Former champion Charles Oliveira (33-8) will be taking on Islam Makhachev (22-1) for the vacant lightweight belt.
To make an Oliveira vs Makhachev betting analysis, we need to break down the styles of this matchup and the ways that either fighter could come away with a win and the lightweight belt.
Last Fight Record
Charles Oliveira beat Justin Gaethje via first-round submission in May of 2022, where the belt was stripped from him for missing weight by .5 lbs. Islam Makhachev is coming off of a win over Bobby Green in February via TKO.
Matchup Information
- October 22, 2022
- Main Card starts at 2 PM ET
- Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- ESPN, ESPN+
Oliveira vs. Makhachev Betting Analysis
Charles Oliveira
Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira is on a run that we haven’t really ever seen in the UFC. After all the ups and downs of a long career starting over a decade ago, Oliveira has risen up again and become the best lightweight in the world today.
It is not just the winning streak; it is the way he has torn through the lightweight division’s top talents in the last year and a half.
MMA Fan
Taking down Chandler, Poirier, and Gathje in the way he did is something special to witness as an MMA fan.
Oliveira was seen predicting that this fight won’t go more than one round. This is telling us that his mindset is not going to change for Makhachev; he will still march him down and try to go right through him as soon as the fight starts.
Hype Behind
Oliveira is well aware of the hype behind Makhachev and how tough of a fight he is for everyone in the division.
Oliveira actually just might not give a crap about it. He is going to Abu Dhabi with one thing on his mind, and it is to go to war with Makhachev and come out victorious to regain his much-deserved belt.
Islam Makhachev
The next protege from the Dagestani team led by Khabib is Islam Makhachev, and he is here to bring the belt back to that team.
Makhachev only has one blemish on his record. Otherwise, he would be in a very similar place Khabib was at this point in his career.
With the dominant Combat Sambo style that Makhachev brings into the UFC, he has made pretty easy work out of everyone he has came across.
His wrestling and grappling just seem to be on a much different level than anyone else in the division.
Makhachev Will “Smash” Oliveira
Him and his team are not short on confidence, making a lot of claims that Makhachev will “smash” Oliveira and make it look easy. And to be honest, it is tough to not believe them when they say that.
We have seen Khabib make every single fight of his look easy, so we believe that Makhachev could do the same. This just feels different, though.
Both men are in such an elite level of their game right now that they both seem unbeatable. This is surely one of the most exciting title matchups in recent UFC history.
Oliveira vs. Makhachev Betting Preview
After breaking down both fighters with the Oliveira vs Makhachev betting analysis, now we need to look at how the betting odds are looking. Oliveira is the surprising betting underdog with odds at +138 now.
In the opening lines, Makhachev was even a bigger favorite. But now he is only a -175 betting favorite over Oliveira on fight week.
Makhachev hasn’t shown any issues with being a favorite in every fight of his, and Oliveira is no stranger to being slept on.
UFC odds are so tough to make when the matchup is between literally the two best fighters in the world right now.
UFC Octagon
Anything can happen at any moment in the UFC octagon, and it is impossible to 100% predict what will happen.
But, breaking down this fight really shows how each man can win. Oliveira is going to march and walk down Makhachev to clip him standing or submit him to the ground.
Different Positions
That seems like the two main ways to win for Oliveira, as well as all the different positions on the ground where he can show Makhachev something he has never seen or felt before.
It goes the same way with Makhachev. The only difference is that we know what he is going to do if he wins. He will take Oliveira down and dominate him from the top position until the fight is stopped or Oliveira gives him his back.
Oliveira vs. Makhachev Betting Predictions
After formulating the Oliveira vs Makhachev betting analysis and going over what betting lines would be the best value; UFC predictions this weekend would not be done right if you did not put money on the main event.
Oliveira is going to start out hot with a lot of pressure and probably stuff the first takedown. Makhachev is always going to have the takedown to turn to when he is uncomfortable with Oliveira in his face. This will be the big test for the former champion early.
Who to Bet On?
If this fight goes much past the first round, Makhachev’s odds to win grow exponentially with every second that goes by. The cardio of Oliveira is worrisome and the early energy output adds to that worry.
All that aside, you just can’t bet against doing the Bronx. He has shown he is the best lightweight in the world and has a resume that makes Makhachev’s record cower in shame. Oliveira will finish this fight before the championship rounds.
UFC Pick: Oliveira (+160)
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