With another Fight Night event coming up on the UFC fight schedule this weekend, one of the fights on the main card to look at is the heavyweight bout between Chase Sherman and Josh Parisian.
Both fighters are going to be fighting for a new contract with the UFC and to prove they belong at this world-class level of MMA.
The Sherman vs Parisian best bets will be potential big wins for fellow MMA bettors, and this is where to look to break down this bout.
Chase Sherman vs. Josh Parisian Information
- Venue and Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Date: November 5, 2022
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Records
Chase Sherman is coming off a much-needed and impressive TKO win over Jared Vanderaa in July. Josh Parisian is riding the high of a TKO win over Alan Baudot in June of this year.
Sherman vs. Parisian Analysis
While analyzing Sherman vs Parisian best bets, the first thing that jumps out is the UFC record of Chase Sherman.
He is 4-9 in the UFC, and that is very rare to see someone with as long of a leash in this organization.
Sherman finished a very tough Jared Vanderaa in his last bout and looked very good while doing it. He has a plod-forward style that he uses to put pressure on his opponents and wear them out.
He also looks to land counterpunches most of the time while slipping his head off the centerline.
A Bigger Man
Parisian is going to be the bigger man in the octagon on Saturday night. He even has to cut weight down to the heavyweight limit, and Sherman should be weighing in around 250 lbs or less.
Parisian is a heavy puncher that likes to get into the pocket and exchange heavy shots.
The striking stats and skill are pretty even in this one. Sherman will be the quicker fighter, but he will have an issue with takedown defense if Parisian gets a hold of him.
Sherman’s Struggles
Sherman struggled with takedown defense, and with his opponent being much heavier, it will be a tough night if he can’t stuff takedowns.
Prepare for this one to be mostly on the feet, with both men having a lot of respect for each other’s power to start round 1.
If Sherman can take this fight to the second and third round, it will be moving in his favor because of the cardio of Parisian.
Odds Breakdown
Chase Sherman
UFC odds have Sherman as the +110 slight betting underdog in this upcoming bout.
The opening lines had this as a coin flip pick ’em fight, but the odds have since gone in Parisian’s favor. Prop bets have Sherman winning inside the distance at +155.
Josh Parisian
Parisian is the betting favorite, with odds at -130 leading up to this weekend.
The over/under 1.5 rounds have plus odds for the under, which is something to look at with a big man like Parisian being able to end the night in one punch.
Sherman vs. Parisian Betting Pick and Prediction
After breaking down what the Sherman vs Parisian best bets could be, let’s start by reviewing how this fight could go down.
UFC picks are tough to make because of the unpredictability of the sport, but we can make educated guesses by breaking down styles.
Taking Round 1
Early on in round 1, these two are going to go through a feeling-out process. Don’t be surprised to see Parisian taking round 1 because he goes for a takedown and lands it with solid control time.
The only issue is that Parisian is going to gas out after attempting a big takedown or two. As the fight goes on, even as the betting underdog, you have to put this fight in Sherman’s favor.
He is going to be in better shape and will keep the pressure up on Parisian, making him have to move backward and around the cage much more than he would want.
Sherman can use his speed to slip the power punches of Parisian and land some clean counterpunches on him as well to accumulate damage in the second and third round.
Even though UFC stats say that these two like to finish fights, this one has a great chance of going the distance.
Who to Bet On?
The 3rd round will be the most impactful round, and we will decide the winner during those 5 minutes. A late finish or a decision is the best bet for this matchup, and Sherman has the most ways to victory over all 15 minutes of this bout.
Even though it is tough to say any heavyweight fight will go the distance, it is actually worth the play for this one between these two fighters.
Pick 1: Chase Sherman (+110)
Pick 2: Over 1.5 rounds (-150)
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